April 1st Financial Key Data and Events

1. March ADP Employment Change (20:15)
As a non-farm payrolls ahead indicator, the strength or weakness of this data directly determines rate cut expectations. If employment exceeds expectations and is strong, it will reinforce the Federal Reserve’s stance of “higher interest rates for longer,” leading to a stronger dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, capital outflows from the crypto market, and downward pressure on BTC and ETH; if the data is weak, it will reinforce expectations of a rate cut mid-year, increase liquidity easing expectations, and trigger a rebound in risk assets, causing crypto prices to rise accordingly.

2. Federal Reserve Officials’ Speeches (Bowman, Musialem, Bal, etc.)
Official statements directly influence policy expectations. Hawkish remarks (emphasizing anti-inflation measures and delaying rate cuts) will suppress crypto prices, while dovish signals (indicating rate cuts) will boost market sentiment. Among them, Bowman’s speech carries the most weight, and his stance will dominate the intraday crypto market volatility.

Overall, today’s data will focus on the tug-of-war over Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. If the data collectively weakens, BTC and ETH are likely to rebound; if the data exceeds expectations and is strong, crypto prices may face a correction pressure. Pay close attention to the interaction between data and speeches.