The current market is in a typical "expectation game" phase. Based on the positive signals released by the US and Iran on April 1, my analysis is as follows:

1️⃣ Do you think the US and Iran can truly cease fire this month?
I lean towards a "limited ceasefire" rather than "long-term peace."
Although both leaders have sent reconciliation signals, the probability of achieving a complete, permanent ceasefire this month is low. More likely, they will reach a temporary, phased restraint agreement.
· Motivation analysis: Iran faces significant economic pressure and needs breathing room; the US has strategic needs to step back from "war-edge" diplomacy and focus resources on other geopolitical contests. Both sides have short-term incentives to "go with the flow."
· Core obstacles: Key disagreements (such as nuclear facilities, regional proxy armed groups, and sanctions relief levels) remain unresolved. The current "ceasefire expectation" is more tactical rest than a fundamental strategic compromise. As long as sanctions are not fully lifted, the underlying logic of conflict persists.
· Risk points: This month, beware of the inertia of "fighting while negotiating." Any sudden action by domestic hardliners on either side could cause tensions to escalate again.

2️⃣ Are you bullish or bearish on the crypto market this month?
Short-term bullish sentiment dominates, but caution is needed against a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" pullback.
Currently, the synchronized strength of the "Three Arrows" (cryptos, US stocks, gold and silver) is essentially a short-term convergence of risk appetite and safe-haven logic.
· Bullish logic: Easing geopolitical risks directly eliminates the extreme tail risk of a "liquidity crisis." If oil prices decline, it will help stabilize US Treasury yields and ease global financial market tension, which is a substantial positive for liquidity-sensitive crypto assets. The market will first trade on valuation recovery driven by "uncertainty removal."
· Potential risks: This broad rally lacks endogenous momentum and is more about "pressure release." If ceasefire news is officially announced, the market may pull back after the initial gains. Also, if the ceasefire results in a "Ukrainian-style freeze," the broader geopolitical fracture remains unaddressed, and long-term liquidity will still be constrained by US dollar policies.

3️⃣ Which sectors are worth positioning in early this month?
Based on the logic of "geopolitical cooling" and "macro liquidity recovery," I recommend focusing on these three areas:
· "AI and Depin (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks)" sector: After geopolitical risks ease, global supply chain (especially energy and computing power) stability expectations improve. AI and Depin sectors (such as decentralized storage and computing) were previously suppressed by high interest rates and macro turbulence. If macro sentiment warms, these "long narrative, heavy asset" targets tend to be most resilient.
· "RWA (Real-World Assets)" sector: The easing of US-Iran tensions essentially signals a relaxation between traditional finance and geopolitical struggles. This will encourage traditional financial institutions to re-enter the market. RWA, as a bridge connecting traditional finance and crypto, benefits most directly from the "ceasefire - rate cut expectations" chain.
· "Oversold Layer1 (Base Layer Public Chains) Ecosystem": Previously, geopolitical tensions caused funds to concentrate heavily in Bitcoin and gold. If risk appetite returns, capital will spill over into fundamentally solid, heavily discounted public chains and their core ecosystem projects (especially those maintaining active development during turbulent periods).

The current market is not "the end of the war," but rather "uncertainty reduction." For the crypto market, the first half of this month is likely to continue the rebound trend. However, if ceasefire news is officially confirmed, expect volatility from profit-taking in the latter part of the month. Operationally, it is advisable to gradually shift high-leverage positions toward the sectors mentioned above when sentiment is high, and avoid chasing highs at the final stage of positive news realization.