#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 A prophecy fulfilled! Today, gold was "knocked out" by crude oil.

Today (April 2nd), the market once again perfectly confirmed a saying: When crude oil rises, gold must die. It’s not about safe-haven demand, nor Federal Reserve jawboning. It’s simply that a surge in crude oil prices directly pushed gold down.

Let’s first look at today’s plunge. London Gold futures briefly rose to around $4,800 in the early session, but the intraday low hit $4,599, and by the close in our market, it was about $4,619. A single-day drop of 3.83%. Early buyers chasing the rally lost 3%–5% in one day. Meanwhile, crude oil surged sharply, reaching new highs for the phase.

Brent crude oil rose from $102 to $107.78 per barrel, a +6.54% increase; WTI crude oil went from $100 to $106.12 per barrel, a +5.99% increase. All of this is caused by old Trump’s fault. The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East, combined with Trump’s inflammatory remarks, has led the market to believe that oil prices will stay high in the short term.

And so, the tug-of-war logic between crude oil and gold is back. Oil rises → inflation expectations explode → real interest rates go up → gold gets hammered.

First, a core fact must be clear: crude oil is the key indicator of global inflation, often called the “mother of inflation.” Its price movements directly influence the entire chain of costs in global industry, transportation, and consumer life. When oil prices surge significantly, inflation expectations in the market will rapidly heat up, which is the fundamental logic affecting gold’s trend.

Trump’s speech on April 2nd kept the Middle East geopolitical tensions high, increasing the risk of transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. Market fears of supply shortages drove frantic capital inflows, pushing oil prices higher. The sharp rise in oil prices directly shattered the market’s previous optimistic expectations of slowing inflation and Fed rate cuts.

Market data today also confirmed this: after the oil rally, CME interest rate futures showed that the probability of a Fed rate cut in June plummeted from 80% to less than 7%. The full-year rate cut expectation was also cut from three times to once, completely shattering the rate cut dream. For capital, with stable interest income from US Treasuries on one side and zero interest plus volatility in gold on the other, funds will naturally decisively abandon gold and shift to Treasuries, the dollar, and other safe-haven assets. This is the direct reason why gold experienced a concentrated sell-off today.

Additionally, the previous rapid rise led to a “buy the dip” sell-off today.

Earlier, gold rose from 4200 to 4800, a 15% increase, mostly profit-taking. Any slight disturbance immediately prompted a rush to exit.

So, what’s the outlook?

In the short term (1–3 days), support for gold is around 4550–4600. The downside is limited, but the rebound remains weak. The key remains crude oil. If oil stays above 105, gold will continue to weaken. Only if oil drops below 100 will gold stop falling and rebound.

Long-term: central banks are still buying gold and de-dollarizing. The bull market isn’t over; it’s just that the high-level shakeout was triggered by crude oil.

The advice remains the same as always: don’t chase highs and get caught. Around 4600, don’t sell in panic; instead, buy gradually to lower costs.

For those looking to bottom fish: identify your psychological price point and consider dollar-cost averaging.

In summary, today’s sharp decline in gold was not an accident. It was the surge in crude oil that reactivated the inflation and interest rate logic.