I recently noticed that Bitcoin is again struggling in the price range below $70K. In fact, it’s currently fluctuating around $66.84K with selling pressure dominating, and Ethereum is even worse, dropping to $2.05K. What’s going on here?

According to analysis from Wintermute, the issue isn’t simply that Bitcoin is weak, but that the entire market structure is changing. Demand from major institutions has significantly declined. When Bitcoin was at $85K-$95K, we saw strong activity from large funds. Now, it’s different; institutional investors are mainly protecting their positions rather than expanding.

Open interest has been steadily decreasing since October, indicating the market is tightening up. Data from options contracts is also very clear — traders are no longer betting on higher prices. Futures premiums are low, and trading desks are seeing more sell orders than buy orders. Even funds are pulling out of Bitcoin ETFs.

But why is that? Wintermute points out that two major structural forces are at play. First is the revaluation of AI-related companies — the market is reassessing tech sector risks after recent model releases. Second is the trend of de-globalization, as countries shift toward more domestic manufacturing, putting pressure on global growth companies.

As a result, Bitcoin is now trading like a high-risk tech stock in a market that favors gold, commodities, and value stocks. Crypto is becoming less attractive as investors demand higher risk premiums.

Recent developments also show a clear weakening of sentiment. Ethereum has fallen below $1,900, and if the trend continues, Wintermute identifies $1,600 as a key technical level to watch. The absence of a strong recovery is even more concerning than the price range itself.

I’ve noticed that market sentiment is currently dominated by uncertainty about policy and macroeconomic conditions. Inflation remains persistent, growth shows signs of slowing, and confidence in the “Fed put” has weakened. When converting from $50 to VND or any other currency, the real value of high-risk assets is also being questioned.

However, Wintermute also reminds us that similar concerns have occurred before and were later reversed. But this time, disruptions from AI and de-globalization seem to be longer-term forces, not just temporary volatility. Therefore, comparing this cycle to previous ones is more difficult. We will need to watch whether risk appetite returns as these macro factors continue to unfold.