On-Chain Data and Trading Strategies Before Bitcoin Halving

The fourth Bitcoin halving is expected to occur around April 18, 2026. From historical backtests, in the 30 days before the halving, the market often follows a “drop first, then rise” pattern. Based on current on-chain data, the share of holdings held by long-term holders has reached a historical high, while exchange balances continue to decline, indicating that selling pressure is weakening. The MVRV indicator is currently 1.9, still within a reasonable range and has not entered an overheated zone. Short-term traders can watch the support range of $62,000 to $65,000 and build positions in batches. Resistance is near $72,000; if, after the halving, it can effectively break through, the main upswing of a new bull market may begin. The key risks are that expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are delayed, and that geopolitical conflicts could trigger risk-averse sentiment. It is recommended to focus on spot holdings, with leverage controlled within 2x.

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