SpaceX's Sprint to a $2 Trillion Valuation | The Capital Fantasia Behind the "Largest IPO in History"

At the beginning of April, the capital markets were rocked by a major announcement. According to Bloomberg, citing insiders, Musk's SpaceX has raised its IPO target valuation to over $2 trillion, planning to raise up to $75 billion through an initial public offering. This will be the largest listed transaction in human history, far surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record set in 2019.

Based on this valuation, SpaceX will surpass all companies in the S&P 500 except Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google's parent company), Microsoft, and Amazon. Its market cap will also exceed Meta and Tesla, Musk's other company. From its founding in 2002 as a near-bankrupt rocket startup to now poised to become the sixth-largest publicly traded company globally, SpaceX has taken just 24 years.

What capital logic lies behind the $2 trillion figure?

Valuation Surge Path: From $1.25 Trillion to $2 Trillion in Just Two Months

In February this year, SpaceX merged with Musk's AI company xAI, creating a giant valued at $1.25 trillion. In this merger, SpaceX was valued at $1 trillion, and xAI at $250 billion. Now, with the IPO target raised above $2 trillion, the valuation has increased nearly two-thirds in just a few months.

Behind this surge is the market's enthusiastic pursuit of the "Space + AI" narrative. $2 trillion is no longer just a number—it represents an unprecedented capital "siphoning." Zhang Lu, founder of Fusion Fund and a SpaceX shareholder, commented: "If SpaceX goes public alone, it will attract capital focused on space technology. Musk, by acquiring xAI, aims to also bring in capital targeting AI."

Where will the money go? Terafab and Space Data Centers

The $75 billion fundraising plan is not unfounded. A memo from SpaceX explicitly states that the 2026 IPO aims to fund several large projects, including the "crazy flight frequency" of Starship rockets, establishing AI data centers in space, and building a lunar base.

Of particular interest is Musk's proposed Terafab project. In March, Musk announced that this project would be operated jointly by Tesla and SpaceX, with plans to build AI data centers in space and factories on the Moon to autonomously produce chips for robots, AI, and space data centers. The plan is for Terafab's chip factories to produce over 1 exawatt of AI computing power annually, directly serving Starlink satellites, orbital data centers, and space AI infrastructure.

An anonymous Wall Street analyst commented: "The key to SpaceX's valuation premium is that it is building a vertically integrated 'space computing stack'—Starlink provides communication, Starship provides launch, Terafab offers computing power, and xAI supplies intelligence. This full-stack capability cannot be replicated by single-field competitors, giving it a scarcity premium."

Business Foundation: Starlink as a "Money Printer," Starship as a Key Variable

The $2 trillion valuation is not just a fantasy. SpaceX's business support mainly comes from three major segments.

Starlink is its real cash cow. According to PitchBook, a market analysis firm, in 2025, Starlink is expected to generate about $10.6 billion in revenue, with an EBITDA of $5.8 billion and a profit margin of 54%, accounting for over two-thirds of SpaceX's total revenue. In 2025, SpaceX's total revenue is estimated at around $15-16 billion, with a net profit of about $2 billion. Bloomberg analysts project that in 2026, launch services and Starlink combined will reach nearly $20 billion in revenue.

The launch business is also steady. In 2025, revenue from launches is expected to be $5.2 billion, with an EBITDA of $1.7 billion and a profit margin of 33%. Since 2008, SpaceX has secured over $24.4 billion in federal contracts from NASA, the U.S. Air Force, and Space Force; in 2025 alone, it completed 165 orbital launches and conducted multiple Starship heavy rocket tests.

xAI currently contributes limited revenue, less than $1 billion, still in the phase of heavy investment in R&D and infrastructure. However, the value of xAI is more about giving SpaceX the "space AI" narrative rather than current cash flow.

But the key variable for valuation is Starship. The V3 version of Starship has a near-Earth orbit payload capacity of 100 tons, nearly three times that of the V2 version's 35 tons. However, the thermal protection issues of Starship have not yet been fully resolved, and the critical test flights in 2026 have not made significant progress. More concerning is Musk's announcement on April 4 that the first launch of V3 Starship has been delayed by 4 to 6 weeks, now scheduled for mid to late May. According to this timeline, the highly anticipated test flight is only about a month away from the rumored IPO.

IPO Process: Investment Banks as Guardians, Retail Investors Take 30%

SpaceX has officially submitted a confidential IPO application to the SEC, with a potential listing as early as June and earliest completion in July. The underwriters are a "dream team"—Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters, with over 21 other banks participating in the syndicate.

SpaceX's IPO plan is reshaping traditional Wall Street underwriting logic. Musk personally assigned roles to different banks: Bank of America handles domestic retail distribution, focusing on high-net-worth individuals and family offices; Morgan Stanley, through its E*Trade platform, serves small retail investors; UBS is responsible for international expansion; Citigroup coordinates international distribution.

Most notably, Musk is discussing allocating up to 30% of the IPO shares to individual investors, more than three times the usual proportion. Sources say all parties expect a very strong retail demand, including wealthy family offices that have supported Musk for years and small retail investors attracted by Musk's tech vision.

Market Controversy: Is $2 Trillion a "Dream Price" or Reasonable Premium?

The $2 trillion valuation has sparked significant debate.

The controversy centers on how much of this valuation is supported by cash-flow-generating Starlink, how much is due to the premium for its dominance in space launch, and how much value the unproven businesses like Starship and space AI can contribute. KPMG notes that a valuation of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion is over 100 times annual revenue, far exceeding giants like Apple (about 30x) and Amazon (about 60x).

Several institutional analysts emphasize that the core support for SpaceX's high valuation comes from its verifiable industry leadership and scalable revenue capacity, not just conceptual narratives. Launch services and Starlink remain the absolute revenue pillars, with combined 2026 revenue approaching $20 billion; both have significant advantages in low-earth orbit communications and rocket launches. Meanwhile, xAI's current contribution is under $1 billion, indicating that the high valuation is anchored in established space infrastructure capabilities rather than AI fantasies.

Pessimists warn of risks. KPMG states that the "multi-planet human species dream" supporting the valuation lacks quantifiable metrics. If the thermal protection of Starship or space data centers underperform, the valuation could be halved. Georgetown University finance professor Reena Aggarwal also notes that even with strong fundamentals and investor interest, an IPO could fail if market conditions deteriorate; recent weeks saw Nasdaq's largest weekly decline in nearly a year, with geopolitical conflicts and oil price surges increasing volatility, making such high valuations highly sensitive to macro uncertainties.

Elon Musk's Dual $2 Trillion Empire: Billionaire Close to Trillionaire Status

If SpaceX successfully goes public, Musk will become the first entrepreneur to control two companies with a market cap of over $1 trillion. Currently, Tesla's market cap is about $1.4 trillion. If SpaceX is valued at $2 trillion, Musk's net worth would soar from approximately $840 billion to potentially over $1 trillion, making him the world's first dollar trillionaire.

A seasoned investor privately remarked: "If SpaceX were an ordinary company, I wouldn't invest at this valuation. But it's SpaceX, it's Musk's company. That's the most subtle part—you can't evaluate it with traditional logic."

As SpaceX's rockets repeatedly soar into space and the capital markets buy into the $2 trillion dream, we might need to ask a more fundamental question: Should space exploration be left to private capital? When a company's valuation exceeds most sovereign nations' GDPs, what does it mean for human society? These questions have no standard answers. But one thing is certain: SpaceX's IPO is not the end—it's very likely the beginning of more commercial empires rising.