Early morning Bitcoin's sudden surge, any seasoned observer can see it's another classic case of news-driven hype. The rumors of a 45-day ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. seem like good news on the surface, but fundamentally, it's just a manipulated market move driven by capital exploiting the situation.

Regardless of the negotiation outcome, this kind of pulse-like rally driven by geopolitical factors lacks sustainable momentum. The current overall trend remains bearish, and even if a ceasefire agreement is reached, it will only provide a short-term emotional boost. Bitcoin in the 69,000-70,000 range will face strong technical resistance and selling pressure.
If negotiations break down, risk aversion will likely first crush the high-leverage longs, causing the market to turn sharply downward. Any rally should be seen as a good opportunity to establish short positions. Do not be fooled by temporary price spikes.