April 8, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran less than two hours before the deadline. Iran accepted the proposal, and Israel agreed to suspend bombing for the duration of the talks. WTI oil collapsed by 17%. The tense situation in the Middle East, which had continued for more than a month, changed abruptly at the last moment.

Today’s article is precisely about a report related to this conflict. In early April, the global investment strategy team at JPMorgan Private Bank released the latest issue of “The Global Investment Strategy (GIS) View, April 2026” — at the time of writing, the ceasefire had not yet taken place, and the market was still pricing in the worst-case scenarios.

The news of the ceasefire significantly eased the market; the decline in oil prices indicates that traders are leaning toward the most optimistic base-case scenario from the report. But the two-week window for the ceasefire is very narrow, and the likelihood of making meaningful progress in the negotiations is extremely uncertain. The three oil price scenarios outlined in the report have not become outdated because of the ceasefire — on the contrary, they are even more relevant now: they will help you anticipate which actions should be taken in the event of the negotiations succeeding or failing.