Weekly Strategy Report April 9, 2026

Weekly Strategy Report 4.9

I. Market Overview This Week

This week, the crypto market showed a volatile consolidation trend, with the Fear & Greed Index rising back to 42 but still in the fear zone, and the total market capitalization falling back to $2.4 trillion. BTC and ETH weakened simultaneously, with short-term oversold signals highlighted. ETF capital continued to flow out net, derivatives market leverage mildly contracted, and overall market risk appetite remained cautious. The market shifted from deep correction to structural oscillation, with the market landscape tending toward balance.

On the macro front, Federal Reserve officials repeatedly signaled hawkish stances, significantly cooling expectations for rate cuts, with the probability of a rate cut in June dropping below 35%. Global liquidity marginally tightened, putting pressure on risk assets, and crypto assets also retraced. Regarding regulation, the US SEC and CFTC jointly released a five-category framework for digital assets, clarifying that four categories are not considered securities, providing guidance for industry compliance; the Clarity Act was reviewed in mid-April, and if passed, it will explicitly classify BTC and ETH as commodities regulated by CFTC, which is positive for compliant crypto assets. Industry-wise, Ethereum’s Cancun upgrade testing continues to advance, Layer 2 ecosystem project funding has cooled, and institutions are gradually reducing positions amid market volatility. This round of correction is mainly driven by macro liquidity tightening and profit-taking, but the long-term industry fundamentals remain unchanged.

II. Core Market Trends and Capital Flows

This week, the crypto market displayed a split pattern of “sentiment warming but cautious capital,” with the Fear & Greed Index rising from 31 to 42, moving out of deep fear but still in a fearful state. The total market cap slightly declined to $2.4 trillion, with short-term oversold signals in mainstream coins. ETF capital continued to flow out, derivatives market leverage mildly contracted, and market risk appetite remained cautious, with the consolidation pattern continuing as investors await new directional signals.

From the sentiment perspective, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 31 last week to 42, still within the fear zone (25-49), but panic sentiment has eased significantly. Investor confidence is slowly recovering, and the market’s bullish atmosphere has improved, though a consensus has yet to form. The sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, and the rally momentum still needs to be consolidated.

In terms of market capitalization, the total crypto market value is currently $2.4 trillion, down 1.91% in 24 hours, continuing a volatile downward trend. Buying momentum is insufficient, with signs of profit-taking and risk aversion coexisting. The overall market remains under pressure, with moderate volatility but persistent downward pressure, indicating a phase of structural adjustment.

Specifically, for the two main cryptocurrencies, BTC and ETH, they show a divergence of “short-term oversold, medium- to long-term strength,” with technical rebound potential but cautious capital flow. BTC is priced at $70,751.65, down 1.10% in 24 hours. Short-term technical indicators (KDJ, CCI, WR) show oversold conditions, with prices near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a technical rebound possibility. Medium- and long-term indicators show strong bullish momentum, with prices oscillating around the middle band, and the bulls and bears approaching balance, indicating a relatively stable overall trend. ETH is priced at $2,175.36, down 2.79% in 24 hours. Short-term oversold signals are clear (KDJ, RSI, CCI, all indicating oversold ), with potential for a rebound. Medium- and long-term indicators point upward, with prices above the middle band, and the bullish trend still intact, though the ADX is low, and trend strength needs improvement. Both assets weakened simultaneously, dragging down the overall market performance.

In capital flows, ETF markets show a “dual outflow” pattern: Bitcoin’s ETF net outflow today is -$85.80M ( last week -$87.20M ), with two consecutive weeks of net outflows, indicating continued institutional withdrawal and cautious attitude; Ethereum’s ETF net outflow today is -$11.80M ( last week +$19.70M ), shifting from net inflow to outflow, with institutions reducing ETH holdings. Overall, capital remains tight, with no large-scale concentrated inflows, and incremental market capital is insufficient.

Derivatives markets show a mild contraction of leverage, with futures open interest at $2.76B ( change -2.29%), and perpetual contracts open interest at $423.39B ( change -3.34%). Leverage funds are slightly withdrawing, market risk appetite remains cautious, and no major deleveraging events occurred. Overall leverage levels are manageable, and risks are relatively limited.

In summary, the current crypto market is in a phase of sentiment recovery, tight capital conditions, and consolidation. Short-term oversold signals coexist with medium- to long-term strength. A technical rebound may occur due to overselling in the short term, but medium-term focus should be on capital flow improvements. Caution is advised in operations, with proper position control, and vigilance against further declines after rebounds.

III. Selected Trading Strategies

Core Highlights:

This ETH strategy is built based on RSI indicators, optimized for ETH’s volatility characteristics. It demonstrates excellent risk control and steady returns among mainstream coin strategies, with very low drawdowns and high win rates. The overall risk-reward ratio is prominent, making it a core enhancement strategy for ETH allocation. It can reliably capture ETH’s market opportunities while strictly controlling drawdowns.

Applicable Scenarios:

Suitable for ETH traders with moderate risk tolerance seeking low-volatility, steady returns. Designed for high-liquidity mainstream coins like ETH, adaptable to oversold rebounds and range-bound oscillations. It serves as a stable enhancement strategy for ETH allocation, especially for funds aiming to avoid large drawdowns and pursue stable compound growth. Not suitable for ultra-conservative long-term funds or extreme bearish markets.

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IV. 24-Hour Top Gainers and Losers

Top 5 Gainers:

Top 5 Losers:

V. Conclusion

This week, the crypto market continued its consolidation pattern, sentiment improved but capital remained tight. Mainstream coins are oversold in the short term but maintain a favorable medium- to long-term trend. ETF capital outflows reflect cautious institutional attitudes. Derivatives leverage has mildly contracted, and risks are controllable. Industry compliance steadily advances, technological iterations continue, and long-term development logic remains unchanged. However, in the short term, macro liquidity tightening and market sentiment fluctuations pose dual pressures. Going forward, key support levels for BTC and ETH ( $65,010 and $1,957 ) should be closely watched, along with ETF capital flow changes and macro policy movements. Mid-term patience is advised for market stabilization signals, while short-term opportunities for oversold rebounds can be monitored. Maintain prudent position management, rational responses to market volatility, and avoid extreme risks.