HTX DeepThink: Inflation expectations once again dominate pricing, and the crypto market enters a period of oscillation and digestion

Deep Tide TechFlow News, April 10th, HTX DeepThink Columnist and HTX Research Analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) points out that on April 10th, the crypto market is in a critical window where “inflation expectations are reasserting dominance in pricing.” As the fragile ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran takes effect, geopolitical conflicts shift from direct shocks to delayed inflation transmission, causing market focus to rapidly switch to inflation risks driven by energy prices. Brent crude oil has already risen about 60% this year, and this change is gradually transmitting through CPI expectations into the interest rate markets, becoming a core variable in global asset pricing.

The US Treasury market has led a defensive adjustment, with traders continuously increasing hedge options positions that benefit from rising yields. The overall position structure indicates that market confidence in a continued decline in interest rates is weakening. Coupled with the previous better-than-expected non-farm payroll data, growth risks are temporarily alleviated, and “whether inflation rebounds” has become a key variable in determining monetary policy paths. For the crypto market, the previously supporting narrative of “rate cuts + liquidity easing” that fueled BTC and gold’s resonance is being recalibrated to “high inflation + sticky rates.” If Friday’s CPI data shows the largest monthly increase since 2022 as expected, the expectation for rate cuts this year could be further lowered. Currently, with only about a 30% chance of a rate cut, there is still room for this probability to narrow, which would directly suppress high-beta altcoins and limit BTC’s upward slope, leading the market into high-level consolidation or even a phased correction zone.

However, this pressure is more of a short-term pricing disturbance rather than a trend reversal. On one hand, the US fiscal and quasi-fiscal systems continue to maintain credit expansion through shadow liquidity; on the other hand, rising energy prices are eroding fiat currency purchasing power and reinforcing the “inflation hedge asset” logic. BTC’s medium-term pricing center still has upward potential, and short-term pressure is more likely to manifest as oscillation digestion rather than a downward trend.

From a market observation perspective, the current core strategy is not about chasing breakouts but maintaining resilience amid uncertainty. If CPI exceeds expectations, attention should be paid to whether rapid liquidity footfalls create oversold opportunities; if inflation is below expectations, it could trigger a short-term rebound in risk assets. Overall, the crypto market is in a typical phase of “macroeconomic suppression of short-term prices with liquidity supporting medium-term trends,” and a clearer directional trend still depends on further clarity in inflation pathways.

Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.