What is the impact of U.S. CPI on Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is the most sensitive high-beta risk asset to global liquidity. CPI directly influences short-term trends through the chain: "Federal Reserve policy expectations → USD/US bonds → market liquidity → Bitcoin price":
Core formula: CPI exceeds expectations (inflation rebounds) → Fed maintains high interest rates/postpones rate cuts → USD strengthens, US bond yields rise → risk asset liquidity tightens → Bitcoin faces downward pressure
Inverse formula: CPI below expectations (inflation cools) → Fed's rate cut expectations increase → USD weakens, US bond yields fall → risk asset liquidity loosens → Bitcoin rises

Short-term (1-4 hours after data release):
Bitcoin is likely to surge then quickly fall back / drop directly: the market has already priced in negative news, and after the data is released, it triggers "buy the rumor, sell the fact," combined with derivatives clearing, which may cause rapid plunges

Support levels: $68k–$70k (lower boundary of previous consolidation range), if broken then look toward $65k–$66k
Resistance levels: $72k–$73k (previous rebound high), difficult to break through if data exceeds expectations
Risk points: If a "waterfall decline" occurs after data release, it may trigger chain liquidations, intensifying the decline

Summary
This CPI data is a key macro turning point for the crypto market in 2026:
If data meets or exceeds expectations, Bitcoin will face short-term pressure, with significant medium-term downside risk. The current only support is the September rate cut expectation; once this expectation is shattered, a deep correction will follow.
If data falls below expectations, it can only cause a temporary rebound, unable to change the overall upward inflation trend, with limited rebound height.