2026-04-11 08:50:02

📍March CPI is temporarily stable despite sharp increases in energy prices

📌Specific details of the March CPI headline:
+3.3% YoY (below the 3.4% forecast, up from 2.4%)
+0.9% MoM (below the 1.0% forecast, higher than 0.3% last month)
-> The strongest MoM increase since 06/2022
📌Core CPI:
+2.6% YoY (below the 2.7% forecast, up from 2.5%)
+0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% forecast, same as last month)
📌 Main driver from energy
- Energy +10.9% MoM
- Gasoline +21.2% MoM (highest since 1967)
- Fuel oil +30.7% MoM
-> Gasoline prices contribute about 2/3 of the CPI increase
Core CPI is only +2.6% YoY, lower than the 2.7% forecast and just slightly above February’s 2.5%. MoM remains at +0.2%, not accelerating. This means the sticky inflation component related to the economy is services and wages, which are almost unchanged. This is why CPI has not been driven too high.
Energy prices have not yet spilled over into other components of the inflation basket. It’s temporarily stable, so market sentiment is not worried.

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