$BTC Evening Viewpoint:

From the hourly chart perspective, if BTC is currently forming an AB=CD equal-leg harmonic pattern, this round of upside move is basically close to its end. The theoretical target at point D for AB=CD is around 75501, while BTC’s highest has reached 74920, which can be regarded as having basically completed the 1:1 target level.

Finishing the target level does not mean an immediate pullback. Currently, BTC maintains range consolidation in the 74840–74149 area. Only if it effectively breaks below the lower boundary of the range at 74141 will an official pullback be triggered. The first support to watch is 73789–73287; if that zone is broken again, only then will it further retest the support around 72150.

You can also keep an eye on that key “flagship” bullish candle below. Only if this bullish candle is engulfed by more than half will the pullback structure become smoother; otherwise, it will most likely just be a minor test of the 73789–73287 support zone before rising again.

In simple terms: if 74141 is not broken, it’s hard to say it’s a real pullback.
If that level is held, the market will most likely continue an upside continuation-and-transfer range consolidation in 74840–74141. After the consolidation is sufficient and the short-side positions’ buildup is large enough, the main force is very likely to probe upward again toward 75501, creating the illusion of continued upside, then lure shorts to turn long and afterward pull back. The probability of this kind of move is not low. Once there is an effective breakout above 75501, there will be at least another wave of upside room in the future.

Trading reference:

• A volume-supported breakout above 74711 and holding steady; aggressive traders can consider right-side chasing longs, with targets at 75537–76546;

• A volume-supported breakdown below 74130, and if a rebound cannot be recovered; aggressive traders can consider right-side chasing shorts;

• Keep a strict stop-loss.

Key levels:

• Hourly level: If it holds above 74711, upside room opens; if it can’t hold, the market will continue oscillating.

• 4-hour level: If it breaks below 74125, look for support at 73125–72035