Locking down while negotiating? Market: Let's see if it rises first!

This wave of market movement is a bit magical:
The maritime blockade is still in place, but the market has already started "celebrating peace."
DeFi sector has risen 5% in 24 hours, indicating that funds are already betting in advance—
Not betting on the outcome, but betting that "it won't get worse."
Will Iran make a key concession?
A more realistic view:
The probability of a significant concession in the long term (like a 20-year horizon) is very low,
But short-term compromises are entirely possible.
The reason is simple:
Both sides need a "buffer period."
This is also the core logic behind the market rise—
The expectation of decreased risk.
So where is the rebound ceiling?
Short-term: It can still go further (driven by sentiment)
Medium-term: Depends on the negotiation results
Long-term: Depends on the stability of the overall situation
Allocation suggestions:
✔ Crude oil: Strong but high, control position size
✔ Cryptocurrency: Recovery phase, participate in batches
✔ Precious metals: Continue to hedge
One sentence summary:
The market isn't rising because of peace, but because it's "not so dangerous anymore." #加密市场回升