JPMorgan Chase Latest Report: Bitcoin Price Correction May Be Entering Final Stage

JPMorgan Chase’s latest report indicates that the current round of Bitcoin price corrections may be entering the final stage. As the pace of outflows from spot ETFs continues to slow, the concentrated selling pressure that previously plagued the crypto market is noticeably weakening, with Bitcoin prices gradually stabilizing around 94,000 USD. Analysts believe that absent new systemic shocks, investor-level selling behavior will likely gradually end during this cycle.

Institutional De-Risking Process Nearing Completion

JPMorgan Chase analyst Nicholas Panigirtzoglou points out in the report that key changes since January 2026 are gradually becoming apparent. Capital outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs continue to narrow, reflecting a clearly decelerating pace of selling by institutional investors.

More importantly, futures market signals are revealing. According to JPMorgan Chase’s analysis, data on Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures positions and momentum indicators show that the de-risking process of institutional and leveraged funds is nearing completion. This suggests that large-scale passive selling waves have likely passed, and the market is entering a relatively stable phase.

Correction Stems from Structural Factors, Not Fundamental Deterioration

The true cause of this correction deserves attention. JPMorgan Chase emphasizes that recent market declines do not stem from on-chain or liquidity crises, with overall market liquidity remaining at relatively healthy levels. The core driver of this correction comes more from structural factors at the index level.

Specifically, MSCI had released signals in October 2025 considering excluding certain crypto-related companies from index adjustments. This expectation once triggered passive fund risk hedging and early position reduction, forming pressure on market sentiment. However, MSCI subsequently confirmed that crypto-related companies will not be excluded from the global equity index adjustment in February 2026. This decision significantly reduces the likelihood of forced selling triggered by index rebalancing.

Multiple Factors Collectively Building Bottom Support

Currently, multiple factors are overlapping to support Bitcoin’s price:

• ETF fund flows are stabilizing, no longer experiencing continuous outflows
• Futures positions returning to neutral, de-risking nearly complete
• Uncertainties at the index level fading, MSCI decision providing market cushion
• Market liquidity maintaining healthy levels
• On-chain and fundamentals showing no deterioration signs

These factors are collectively supporting Bitcoin’s price, strengthening market confidence in “a cyclical bottom is forming.”

Subsequent Trends and Institutional Expectations

According to latest information, institutions show some divergence in their 2026 Bitcoin expectations. JPMorgan Chase estimates a 2026 target price of 170,000 USD, while Standard Chartered and Bernstein look toward 150,000 USD, with optimists expecting 200,000-250,000 USD, and conservative range at 110,000-135,000 USD. Current Bitcoin price around 90,563 USD shows clear upside potential toward these targets.

From institutional behavior perspective, despite possible short-term volatility, the main risks of this correction have been gradually absorbed by the market. The key is whether new systemic shocks will emerge—this will be the decisive factor in determining whether the bottom remains solid.

Summary

JPMorgan Chase’s report conveys three core signals: first, institutional de-risking is nearing completion, large-scale selling waves likely have passed; second, this correction stems from structural factors such as index adjustments rather than fundamental deterioration, with market liquidity remaining healthy; third, multiple support factors are building a cyclical bottom, but investors must remain vigilant against new systemic risks. For investors, the key is distinguishing between “technical bottoms” and “real bottoms”—the former may be nearing, but the latter requires time and further market performance to confirm.