What will happen with cryptos and quantum computing next year? We analyze what the experts are saying - Crypto Economy

TL;DR:

• Experts argue 2026 is a readiness year, with Bitcoin and Ethereum unlikely to be compromised in the next 12 to 18 months.
• Breaking RSA-2048 or ECDSA would require millions of corrected qubits; estimates cite under 1 million for RSA-2048, and about 13 million for Bitcoin.
• NIST has standardized four post-quantum algorithms and hybrid upgrades are expected in 2026, while “harvest now, decrypt later” supports migration, not panic.

Quantum computing keeps resurfacing as crypto’s existential risk, yet the latest expert analysis lands on a sober conclusion. 2026 looks like a readiness year, not a quantum apocalypse, because the computing power required to compromise the cryptography that secures major networks is still far beyond today’s machines. The assessment says Bitcoin and Ethereum are unlikely to be compromised in the next 12 to 18 months, even as the public narrative grows louder. It argues managers treat quantum headlines as a 2026 red herring and focus on macro drivers. For investors, the practical question becomes how quickly protocols can prepare, govern, and execute upgrades without disrupting markets.

What experts expect in 2026 and how crypto can respond

The argument rests on hard technical gaps. Cryptographically relevant quantum computing remains out of reach, and breaking RSA-2048 or ECDSA would require millions of error corrected qubits. The analysis cites a view that fewer than 1 million physical qubits could be sufficient to crack RSA-2048, but stresses the milestone is still theoretical rather than deployable. For Bitcoin’s ECDSA signatures, it cites an estimate of about 13 million physical qubits using Shor’s algorithm. That sits against processors still operating in the hundreds of qubits, leaving a gap between models and real capability. This distance underpins the view that 2026 is about preparation, not an imminent cryptographic break.


That is why 2026 is described as a migration runway. Standards and mandates are turning post-quantum work into an operating plan, with the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology having standardized four post-quantum cryptography algorithms and hybrid schemes expected to dominate infrastructure upgrades in 2026. The same outlook points to a U.S. push to upgrade national security systems by 2027, and notes Cloudflare, AWS, and Google testing post-quantum TLS. It also highlights global inventory work to map cryptographic dependencies across enterprises. For blockchains, consensus driven upgrades can be staged deliberately, and longer development cycles can avoid rushed, costly migrations common in legacy systems.

The remaining concern is the “harvest now, decrypt later” playbook, where adversaries store encrypted data today for future decryption. Prudence beats panic because the timeline is long, and the analysis argues decentralized, public ledgers reduce the payoff versus centralized databases. It also emphasizes crypto’s capacity to change standards through governance and consensus, a flexibility centralized systems often lack. The takeaway for 2026 is to protect short term stability while mapping long term adaptability and regulatory alignment, including prioritizing protocols with clear upgrade paths. Quantum readiness is framed as progress, and the material threat is positioned for the 2030s rather than a sudden 2020s shock overall.