Crypto will have two winners:Those who held conviction.And those who bought the dip. I’m looking at $SOL, PRIVACY, DeFi, AI and RWA.

There are no black swan events; Bitcoin suddenly plummeted, and the market is trying to find the cause. The charts show that BTC and SOL almost moved in sync downward, but the on-chain and centralized exchange liquidation volumes aren't actually that exaggerated. This is interesting because it suggests that the selling pressure may not be coming from typical crypto capital players. I happened to see an analysis by Parker White from DeFi Dev Corp, which I find quite insightful. He mentioned that yesterday, the trading volume of BlackRock's IBIT spot ETF surged to $10.7 billion, nearly double the previous record high, and the options premium also skyrocketed to $900 million, both hitting new all-time highs. Data doesn't lie; such abnormal activity usually corresponds to some large-scale position changes. He speculates that this volatility might originate from one or two hedge funds holding extremely large positions on IBIT, possibly based in Hong Kong. Some of these funds even hold IBIT as a single asset to isolate margin risk. The problem lies with leverage. Recently, not only silver but also yen arbitrage trading has been accelerating in liquidation, right? The macro environment's pressure is transmitting through, causing these funds' leveraged positions to be hit hardest. To recover losses or seek gains, they might have engaged in high-leverage options trading, but the market didn't follow the script. Bitcoin's drop could have directly breached their position limits. I think there are two layers to the aftershock of this event. First is the lag in information disclosure. According to 13F reporting requirements, we have to wait until mid-May to see detailed institutional holdings.