XRP Today's News: Fed rate cut expectations intertwine with the encryption ETF craze, XRP may return to the 3-dollar mark.

The U.S. government shutdown has led the SEC to operate with only the minimum staff, causing further delays for the XRP Spot ETF, while encryption ETFs such as Solana, Litecoin, and HBAR will be launched first. Although XRP is under pressure in the short term, institutional demand and expectations of Fed rate cuts provide support for a mid-term rebound. Analysts predict that once the ETF is approved, XRP may return to the $3 mark.

The U.S. Government Shutdown Impacts XRP Spot ETF Progress

As of October 27 (Monday), the U.S. government shutdown has extended to the 27th day, and Congress has yet to vote on the temporary funding bill. This deadlock further delays the approval process for the XRP Spot ETF.

As the SEC continues to operate with a “skeleton crew,” the market's anticipated new highs for XRP have temporarily cooled off. Profit-taking has also led to XRP ending its four-day upward trend.

At the same time, multiple encryption ETFs will be launched this week, including Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, Grayscale Solana ETF, Canary Litecoin ETF, and Canary HBAR ETF. These products will seize the opportunity to attract institutional funds in advance.

Analysts point out that if the shutdown continues, it will further delay the inflow of funds into the XRP Spot ETF, weakening short-term confidence in the market.

Legal and Regulatory Interpretation: Why Some ETFs Are Still Approved

Support for encryption lawyer Bill Morgan said: “I have long thought that the XRP spot ETF would be next, but it is always delayed, always pushed back.”

At the same time, encryption reporter Eleanor Terrett explained in her report for CryptoAmerica why some encryption ETFs were still approved to go live during the suspension:

She pointed out that the ETF's 8-A document is as important as the S-1 document. The 8-A registers the ETF for listing on the exchange under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, while the S-1 registers its issuance under the Securities Act of 1933.

Terrett emphasized: “All encryption ETFs that are set to launch this week have completed the NYSE's 8-A registration and included provisions in the S-1 filing that allow for automatic launch 20 days after submission, without SEC approval.”

This means that even if the government shuts down, eligible ETFs can still automatically initiate the issuance process after the specified time.

Potential Alternatives to XRP ETF and Market Expectations

For the issuer of the XRP Spot ETF, it may be possible to automatically list it after submission by modifying the S-1 document to add similar automatic listing clauses 20 days later.

However, considering that the longest shutdown period in U.S. history lasted 35 days, relevant agencies still tend to wait for the government to reopen, hoping for formal approval from the SEC.

According to Polymarket data, the market currently gives a 99% probability for the approval of the XRP Spot ETF in 2025, indicating that long-term investor confidence remains strong.

Although the short-term delay may disappoint some investors, the trading demand for XRP futures and ETF derivatives remains strong, indicating that once approved, the Spot ETF will quickly attract large-scale capital inflows.

Institutional Demand and Long-Term Bullish Factors

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg recently stated that he is becoming more optimistic about the capital inflow of the XRP Spot ETF in its first month:

“I might have underestimated the market before. If the capital inflow reaches $5 billion, that would already be a success; if it reaches $10 billion, it will be among the top ten ETFs in history.”

Meanwhile, Ripple expands Main Street business with a $1 billion XRP treasury plan to provide solid support for the price:

• Ripple Prime brand upgrade, promoting the actual use of XRP in mainstream payment sectors;
• Evernorth (a subsidiary supported by Ripple) is establishing a reserve of over 1 billion XRP to strengthen ecosystem stability.

These trends indicate that institutional demand for XRP is steadily increasing.

The Fed's interest rate cut expectations may become a short-term catalyst

Against the backdrop of Congress not yet passing the temporary funding bill, market focus is turning to the Fed meeting on October 29 (Wednesday).

Investors generally expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) and to cut again in December. If Chairman Jerome Powell signals a dovish stance, risk assets (including XRP) are likely to rebound, with a target range looking at $3.

If interest rate cuts are combined with the news of XRP spot ETF approval, XRP is expected to replace Tether (USDT) as the third largest encryption asset by market capitalization.

Technical Analysis: Key Price Levels and Trend Signals

(Source: TradingView)

On October 27, XRP fell by 0.44%, closing at $2.6340, giving back some of the gains from the previous day. Despite the short-term pressure, XRP remains above the 200-day EMA ($2.6124), but has yet to break through the 50-day EMA ($2.6897), indicating a weak short-term trend.

If the Senate passes the funding bill and there are favorable conditions from the Fed, XRP may return above the 50-day EMA, establishing a Rebound signal.

Key technical range:

• Support levels: $2.62, $2.35, $2.2, $2.0, $1.9
• Resistance levels: $2.8, $3.0, $3.66

Potential Catalytic Events: Six Key Variables to Watch This Week

1. Fed interest rate decision and Powell press conference
2. Voting results of the US Senate appropriations bill
3. US-China Trade Negotiations and Geopolitical Risks
4. XRP Spot ETF Delay or Approval News
5. Has BlackRock submitted the application for iShares XRP Trust?
6. Ripple bank license application, SWIFT market trends, and Market Structure Bill legislative progress

Bearish Scenario: Risk of Breaking Below $2.62

If the Fed lowers interest rates but releases hawkish statements, or if BlackRock delays the XRP ETF plan and the government shutdown is prolonged, XRP may break below the $2.62 support level, dropping to the $2.35 and $2.2 range.

In addition, if the OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) rejects Ripple's application for a U.S. banking license, or if SWIFT maintains its dominance in global remittances, it will also limit the long-term growth potential of XRP.

Bullish Scenario: Path Back to $3

If the Senate passes the temporary funding bill, the Fed signals a rate cut, and BlackRock submits the XRP ETF documents, Ripple receives approval for its banking license, XRP may quickly break through $2.8, targeting the psychological barrier of $3 .

If the signing of the Sino-American trade agreement is superimposed with the expansion of the Main Street scenario, the price of XRP may enter a new rising channel.

Outlook: Multiple tailwind signals strengthen the medium-term bullish trend for XRP

The short-term trend of XRP will depend on the progress of congressional funding and the direction of Fed policy. If the government restarts and is accompanied by rising expectations of interest rate cuts, market confidence in XRP will quickly recover.

At the same time, institutional layout, Ripple's mainstream strategy, and potential ETF approval are all strengthening the bullish logic in the medium term.

Overall, XRP still has the potential to challenge the range of $3.5 by 2025, especially after the official start of ETF fund inflows.

Conclusion

The US government's short-term shutdown has suppressed the pace of the XRP Spot ETF, but the long-term trend remains upward. With expectations of Fed interest rate cuts rising, institutional demand increasing, and the expansion of the Ripple ecosystem, XRP may be poised for a breakout. The coming weeks will be a decisive moment, with market focus shifting to Congress voting and SEC approval dynamics.