Why did Bitcoin fall today? 14-year OG Whale closed all positions worth 1.3 billion USD, triggering panic.

Why Bitcoin's fall today has become the focus of the market. According to Arkham Intelligence, the whale Owen Gunden, who first purchased Bitcoin in 2011, has sold all 11,000 Bitcoins, with a total value of 1.3 billion USD. This early arbitrage trader, who was once the world's third-largest crypto assets billionaire, has transferred over 344 million USD since the end of October last year, ultimately closing all positions.

Who is Owen Gunden? The 14-year holdings legend comes to an end

(Source: Arkham)

The core reason for the fall of Bitcoin today points to Owen Gunden's action of closing all positions. According to Arkham Intelligence, Gunden first purchased Bitcoin in 2011 and was one of the early Bitcoin arbitrage traders. In the early days of Bitcoin's birth, arbitrage traders profited from the price differences between different exchanges, which required a deep understanding of crypto assets technology and the market. Gunden was indeed one of these pioneers, and his early substantial investments made him a legendary figure in the crypto assets circle.

During the 14 years of holding Bitcoin in Gunden, his net worth fluctuated with the market. In 2021, his Bitcoin holdings once reached 936 million USD, but during the bear market in 2022, it plummeted to 209 million USD. This extreme fluctuation in wealth is a typical experience for early cryptocurrency holders who witnessed the complete journey of Bitcoin rising from a few dollars to over 126,000 USD.

As of July 10, according to wallets tracked by Arkham, Gunden held approximately $1.4 billion worth of Bitcoin, at that time the price of Bitcoin was $115,000. This made him the third richest cryptocurrency billionaire in the world, behind the mysterious Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto and Chinese entrepreneur Justin Sun (founder of TRON). By November 12, Gunden began transferring funds to CEX, and his on-chain valuation dropped to $561 million, according to Arkham's data, making him the eighth richest crypto asset holder.

Although he seems no longer active online, his legendary story in the Crypto Assets circle continues to spread due to his early massive investments in Bitcoin. Gunden's close all positions behavior has sparked profound reflection in the market on why Bitcoin is falling today: when a steadfast believer holding for 14 years chooses to exit completely, does this mean the bull market is over?

13 billion USD close all positions timeline and capital flow

(Source: Arkham)

According to data from Arkham Intelligence, Gunden first purchased Bitcoin in 2011 and has been slowly transferring his crypto assets over the years, but has intensified his activity in the past month, including sending over $344 million to centralized exchange CEX. The Arkham intelligence department claims that these recent transfers indicate that Gunden has “sold” all of his 11,000 Bitcoins.

However, once Bitcoin is sent to a centralized exchange, its whereabouts cannot be tracked—he may use the CEX to custody his Bitcoin or utilize its staking feature to earn yields. But based on market reactions, most analysts believe these transfers ultimately lead to dumping. This on-chain intelligence company calculated that since it began operations at the end of October last year, Gunden has cashed out a total value of 1.3 billion dollars in Bitcoin.

Earlier today, Arkham detected a large transfer of $230 million worth of Crypto Assets to a CEX, marking the latest transaction in the field. This transfer became the last straw that broke the camel's back, triggering a new round of panic dumping in the market and directly causing Bitcoin to fall below the $86,000 mark.

Gunden close all positions timeline key points

2011: First purchased Bitcoin, becoming an early arbitrage trader.

2021: Holdings reached a peak value of 936 million USD

2022: During the bear market, holdings shrank to 209 million USD.

July 10: Holdings valued at approximately 1.4 billion USD, the third richest person in the world

End of October: Start large-scale transfers to CEX

November 12: Holdings decreased to 561 million USD

Today: Last $230 million transferred, close all positions completed

This strategy of phased selling shows that Gunden is exiting in a planned manner rather than fleeing in panic. However, even a planned large-scale selling can trigger a chain reaction explaining why Bitcoin is falling today, given the current market environment of liquidity depletion.

Bitcoin plummets 31%, fear index extremely panic

According to data from CoinGecko, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by 31% from the historical high of $126,080 set a month ago, to $86,466. In the past few hours, the price trend of Bitcoin has worsened again, with Bitcoin prices further plummeting to $86,000 on most exchanges, marking the first time it has fallen below this level since April.

This means that according to numerous analysts, the Crypto Assets is close to a major support line. This sudden fall has raised questions among industry insiders about whether the Crypto Assets market is about to enter a bear market. The reason for Bitcoin's fall today lies not only in Gunden's dumping but also in the overall liquidity depletion and collapse of confidence in the market.

Arkham's data shows that Gunden's behavior is in stark contrast to that of other Whales who have been continuously increasing their holdings during the recent broader market crash, which caused the asset to fall from over $107,000 to $86,000 in less than 10 days. When veteran players choose to exit and new players are hesitant to enter, the market falls into a vicious cycle of one-sided decline.

With the latest round of Bitcoin price declines, over 410 million USD in long positions have been forcibly closed in the past 24 hours, while the total value of forced liquidations across the market is nearly 900 million USD. Data from CoinGlass shows that the largest forced liquidation order occurred on the HTX exchange, worth over 30 million USD. This level of liquidation wave further exacerbates the spiral decline of Bitcoin today.

Institutions are frequently lowering target prices, shaking market confidence

In this downward trend, Ark Invest's Cathie Wood has lowered the target price for Bitcoin in 2025 from 1.5 million USD to 1.2 million USD, citing that the popularity of stablecoins has reduced the demand for Bitcoin as a payment tool. Although the target price of 1.2 million USD is still extremely optimistic, the adjustment itself carries significant implications, indicating that even the most steadfast Bitcoin bulls are reassessing the market outlook.

The institutional Crypto Assets company Galaxy has also lowered its year-end target price from $185,000 to $120,000, as it believes that the current volatility is too low to reach the previous target. This judgment seems contradictory—why call volatility too low while the market is experiencing a sharp fall? Galaxy's logic is that reaching $185,000 requires strong upward momentum, and the current market lacks this momentum, instead falling into a slow downward trend.

These target price downgrades have deepened the market's pessimism regarding why Bitcoin is falling today. When analysts and institutions begin to lower expectations, it often creates a self-fulfilling prophecy—investors sell off due to seeing the target price downgrades, leading to further price declines, which in turn validates the rationale for the downgrades.

Where is the next support level? $85,000 life and death line

Bitcoin fell to $86,000 a few minutes ago, and analysts are discussing the key support level that might stop its free-fall. CW pointed out that there is a whale buying wall around $85,000, which could be the first line of defense. If this support level is breached, The Wolf Of All Streets believes that if Bitcoin drops to the 200-day moving average of $55,000, the situation for Bitcoin could become “very bad.”

A drop from $86,000 to $55,000 represents an additional 36% fall, which will result in Bitcoin falling approximately 56% from its historical peak. Such a decline is not uncommon in Bitcoin's history; during the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to $15,500, a drop of 77%. However, for investors who entered at high levels, this level of loss is catastrophic.

The ultimate answer to why Bitcoin is falling today is the combination of multiple factors: Gunden's $1.3 billion close all positions, market liquidity depletion, institutions lowering target prices, and over $400 million in forced liquidations. When these negative factors act simultaneously, the market falls into a panic selling spiral.