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Analyst: BTC recovery is fragile, Middle East situation may dominate market trends in 2026
Deep Tide TechFlow News, April 13, according to Cointelegraph reports, Coin Bureau founder and crypto market analyst Nic Puckrin stated that Bitcoin’s current recovery trend is fragile, and geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures triggered by the Middle East war will dominate the market trend in the second quarter of 2026, with rate cuts not expected until the third or fourth quarter at the earliest. He pointed out that for BTC to break through $90k, three conditions must be met simultaneously: easing geopolitical tensions, oil prices falling back to around $80, and economic data softening.
Currently, BTC is priced at approximately $71,276, facing resistance at $74,000, and still trading below the 200-day exponential moving average. Previously, BTC briefly rose above $73,000 on April 6 but retreated after the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations and Trump’s announcement of blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve FOMC is divided internally on rate cuts in 2026, with CME FedWatch data showing that the probability of maintaining rates at unchanged levels at the April 29 and June 17 meetings exceeds 98%.