#大户持仓变化 Someone always complains about the current market being volatile, with fake breakouts everywhere, and the market performance is far below historical levels. Is that true? Come on, it wasn't smooth sailing in the past either. Look at the era of Jesse Livermore — you had to call your broker to open a position, and only after walking to the trading desk could you place an order. How turbulent was that process? Just look at his manuscripts and you'll understand. The core issue is actually quite simple: trend trading, especially breakout strategies, boils down to human nature. As long as real people are behind the market operations, it doesn't matter what tools are used — whether it's robot trading or quantitative execution, the market will still behave the same. Of course, as any asset matures, its volatility within a given time frame will tend to converge, which isn't something to argue about. But humans need to sleep, so daily charts are the most ideal trend cycle for most assets. Crypto markets are faster, so 4-hour charts are acceptable. Want to address the issue of insufficient volatility? Just add one or two new coins each cycle to fill the gap. The cycle characteristics of assets like $BTC, $XRP, and $SOL are worth pondering more.

#美联储降息 People often complain that the current market isn't as smooth as before. There are a bunch of false breakouts, so how can we trade? Actually, you're overthinking it. History has never been a straight line. Going back a hundred years, what was it like for traders in the Livermore era? Placing an order meant calling the broker, who would slowly walk to the counter to open a position. Is that smooth? All the back-and-forth was just oscillation. Flip through his manuscripts and you'll understand—those days were just as frustrating as now. Where's the key point? Trend trading, especially breakout strategies, is fundamentally a battle against human nature. As long as real people are behind the market, no matter what tools you use—robots or quantitative programs—the expected market moves will still come. That's unchangeable. Another phenomenon worth noting: once an asset matures, its unit time volatility range inevitably narrows, no debate there. But people need sleep, 24 hours a day. So, on daily charts, most assets have the most comfortable trend cycle. If the crypto market moves faster, a 4-hour cycle can work too. Want to trade comfortably? There are ways—add one or two new assets to each cycle, using new coins to fill in the gaps of insufficient volatility. $BTC, $XRP, $SOL —these mainstream assets each have different characteristics. Choosing the right cycle and asset combination, trend trading still follows that same logic.

#以太坊行情技术解读 Is the market trend really becoming more fragmented? Many people are complaining that fake breakouts are everywhere now, and things aren’t as smooth as before. What I want to say is—things have never been smooth before. Just look at history. In the era of Livermore, opening a position required calling the broker, then slowly walking to the counter to execute the trade. The process itself was full of turbulence. Looking at his manuscripts, it’s clear that trading has never been a smooth sail. But this precisely illustrates a principle: trend trading—especially breakout trading—is not fundamentally about how smooth the market is, but about human nature. As long as there are humans behind the market (whether placing orders directly, or using robots and quantitative programs), the expected market movements will come. Tools can be upgraded, but the underlying logic of the market doesn’t change. Of course, as any asset matures, its volatility over a given period tends to converge—this is an objective law. But a key point often overlooked is—people need rest every day. So for most assets, the daily chart is actually the most suitable cycle for trend trading. The crypto market moves faster, and the 4-hour chart also works well. A simple way to handle volatility convergence is: rotate and add 1-2 new assets each cycle. Mainstream coins like $BTC, $XRP, $SOL, combined with different entry points, can effectively compensate for the lack of volatility in a single asset. This way, you can catch trends and also reduce the risk of being trapped.