A survey shows that most economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September and to lower them again once more this year.

Jin10 data reported on August 15, Reuters surveyed the majority of economists expecting the Fed to make its first interest rate cut of the year in September, followed by another possible cut before the end of the year, which is the benchmark forecast. Currently, concerns about the health of the U.S. economy are increasing. Among 110 respondents, 67 (61%) expect the Fed to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% - 4.25% in September, marking the first cut of the year, up from 53% in the July survey, with one expecting a 50 basis point increase. The remaining 42 indicated that the Fed will keep rates unchanged again. Over 60% of respondents (68 out of 110) expect one to two interest rate cuts this year, roughly in line with last month. However, there is no consensus on the level of the federal funds rate by the end of 2025. Furthermore, 68% of respondents also expect that the independence of the Fed will not be seriously eroded during Powell’s remaining term.