Economist Alex Krüger: The crypto market bull run cycle has not yet ended, and the long-term bullish belief in Bitcoin remains unshaken | BTC price prediction

Renowned economist Alex Krüger refuted the claim that the encryption bull run has ended, believing that the prevailing bearish sentiment and large-scale liquidations in the current market actually provide buying opportunities for contrarian investors. He proposed the "Supercycle" theory, suggesting that the market will continue with a more gradual rise and smaller pullbacks, rather than the traditional big pump-big dump pattern. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that short-term Bitcoin holders have begun capitulation dumping, but the conviction of long-term holders remains strong, and the seller exhaustion indicator also suggests that selling pressure in the market is weakening.

Bearish is Bullish: Economist Alex Krüger's Contrarian View

As the crypto market recently experiences severe fluctuations, economist Alex Krüger posted on platform X, pointing out that "most cryptocurrency charts look so devastated and bearish that this in itself is a bullish signal." He believes that the large-scale long liquidations prove that the market is undergoing a moment of "Capitulation," and this widespread panic sentiment is the best buying opportunity. Krüger observed that the recent market decline primarily affected Bitcoin and Ethereum, while the decline of altcoins has halted prematurely; this divergence usually indicates an impending market recovery.

He firmly believes that the current volatility is only temporary and has "extreme confidence" that the "bull run cycle is not over yet." Krüger believes that the market will continue to fluctuate until the next Federal Reserve meeting is settled. He suggested that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts (which have not yet been fully reflected in valuations) could be the catalyst that triggers the next round of rise.

"Supercycle" Theory: A Bull Run Without a "Blow-Off Top"?

When asked whether this cycle could continue without a "blow-off top," Krüger elaborated on his "Supercycle" theory. He believes that the encryption market will bid farewell to the traditional "big pump-big dump" model and will instead continue to rise with "smaller declines and lower slopes." This means the market will enter a more stable and longer-term growth phase, rather than experiencing a rapid collapse after a frenzied speculative surge.

Krüger predicts that there will be no peak in 2025. He believes that, apart from Solana, which may experience a similar situation due to demand accumulation, other major assets lack the conditions for a large-scale frenzy. He further speculates that personnel changes at the Federal Reserve in 2026 may be the real catalyst for triggering the next major bull run peak.

He refuted the "September curse"—the seasonal tendency for the market to be bearish in September—calling it "statistical nonsense," merely a behavior of people seeking patterns, unrelated to the actual market conditions.

On-chain data: Short-term holders capitulate, long-term conviction remains unchanged

Despite Krüger's optimistic view, on-chain data reveals that the market is undergoing a painful shakeout. Since reaching a high of $124,000 three weeks ago, the price of Bitcoin has faced strong downward pressure, briefly falling to a low of $107,270. As the price drops, short-term holders (STH, investors holding coins for less than 155 days) are starting to capitulate.

Analysis shows that Bitcoin's STH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) has fallen below 1 for the first time since February, indicating that short-term holders are overall in a state of loss. In just two weeks, short-term holders have realized losses of 2,600 BTC, reflecting panic-driven dumping behavior and increasing short-term selling pressure. However, historically, large-scale losses among short-term holders often signal that the market bottom is approaching, as weak hands are "washed out," laying the foundation for strong hands to accumulate positions.

(Source: Checkonchain)

In stark contrast to the panic selling of short-term holders, Bitcoin's long-term holders (LTH) remain steadfast in their beliefs. Data shows that the sell-side risk of long-term holders has sharply declined after peaking, indicating that they tend to hold rather than sell. Their market confidence has not been shaken by short-term fluctuations. Additionally, the "sell-side exhaustion constant" indicator has begun to rise after a continuous decline throughout August, suggesting that selling pressure is weakening, creating conditions for market stability and potential recovery.

Conclusion

Overall, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical turning point. On one hand, contrarian investors represented by Alex Krüger believe that the current market's pessimism and capitulation sell-off are healthy, signaling a buying opportunity and a longer-term "Supercycle". On the other hand, on-chain data also confirms the panic exit of short-term holders, while simultaneously showing the resilience of long-term holder confidence.

Whether Bitcoin can hold above the key support level of 109,000 USD and eventually break through the resistance of 112,000 USD will be crucial in determining its short-term trend. Although there is a possibility of the market continuing to drop to 105,000 USD, the strong support from long-term holders and the weakening selling pressure provide robust bottom support for the market. For investors, the current volatility feels more like a test of faith rather than the end of a bull run.