Does Genesis Energy’s Recent 55% Surge Signal Room for Growth in 2025?

Trying to decide what to do with Genesis Energy? You are not alone. With an eye-catching year-to-date gain of 55.7% and a five-year return that clocks in at a staggering 345.1%, the stock has certainly earned its spot on watchlists. That being said, it is natural to wonder if recent pullbacks such as last week’s -3.3% slip or the -2.2% dip over the last month signal a shift in risk, or just the market catching its breath after a strong run. It is hard to ignore the way Genesis Energy has consistently bounced back, especially as broader market dynamics evolve and sector leaders rotate.

But at the end of the day, all of these price moves are just part of the story. When it comes to making confident decisions about buying, holding, or selling, valuation matters most. For Genesis Energy, the numbers show a value score of 4 out of 6. That means the stock is undervalued according to four key valuation checks, a strong indicator for anyone pondering its upside from here.

In the sections that follow, we will dive into the different ways analysts assess value and where Genesis Energy currently stands by those measures. There is even a more holistic framework that can cut through the noise, so be sure to read through to see what really drives value in this unique company.

Genesis Energy delivered 34.7% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Oil and Gas industry.

Approach 1: Genesis Energy Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. This process reflects both expected growth and the time value of money. For Genesis Energy, the DCF approach uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model in USD ($), factoring in both detailed analyst estimates and longer-range projections beyond the next five years.

Currently, Genesis Energy’s latest twelve-month Free Cash Flow (FCF) stands at -$313.2 million. While this figure is negative, analysts anticipate a turnaround and steady growth, projecting FCF to reach $335.6 million by the end of 2029. Estimates for the years ahead show a consistent upward trend, with discounted FCF of $253.2 million in 2026, rising each year and culminating at $168.3 million by 2035. The initial five years of forecasts draw directly from analyst sources, while years beyond rely on calculated extrapolations.

Based on these projections and using a DCF methodology, the estimated intrinsic value for Genesis Energy is $40.07 per share. This represents a 59.0% discount compared to the current share price, indicating the stock is significantly undervalued at present.

Story Continues Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Genesis Energy.

GEL Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2025 Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Genesis Energy is undervalued by 59.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Genesis Energy Price vs Sales

For companies like Genesis Energy, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is often a preferred valuation metric, especially when profits are volatile or negative but sales remain strong. The P/S multiple provides a clear and comparable way to gauge how the market values each dollar of revenue. This is particularly useful in capital-intensive industries such as oil and gas.

Growth expectations, risk profile, and profitability all influence what constitutes a “normal” or “fair” P/S ratio. Faster-growing companies or those with stronger margins tend to command higher multiples, while higher risks or lower growth can result in lower multiples. Currently, Genesis Energy trades at a P/S ratio of 0.70x, which is notably below the oil and gas industry average of 1.58x as well as its peer group average of 2.31x.

Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio metric goes beyond simple peer or industry averages. By factoring in the company’s specific growth outlook, profit margins, market capitalization, and risk profile, the Fair Ratio aims to provide a more accurate sense of what multiple Genesis Energy deserves in today’s market. For Genesis Energy, the Fair Ratio is calculated at 0.27x. This means that even at its low current P/S multiple, the market is actually assigning a higher multiple than what is justified by the company’s fundamentals. In other words, the stock may be priced above its fair market value based on these factors.

Result: OVERVALUED

NYSE:GEL PS Ratio as at Sep 2025 PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Genesis Energy Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a simple yet powerful way to connect your personal view of a company’s story to what the future numbers could look like, and ultimately, to what the shares are really worth. Instead of just crunching numbers, Narratives invite you to set your own fair value, revenue growth, and profit margin estimates based on your perspective, so that your analysis has real meaning.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors can easily create and update Narratives. This makes them a flexible and accessible decision-making tool. Each Narrative turns your outlook for Genesis Energy into a clear financial forecast, which then calculates a fair value you can compare against the current share price. As the market shifts or new earnings and news come in, Narratives update automatically so your investment case always reflects the latest information.

For example, one investor might see Genesis Energy’s future as bright and assign a high fair value, while another might take a more cautious view, resulting in a much lower estimate. Narratives give you both the numbers and the story, all in one place, so you can make the smartest decisions, every time.

Do you think there's more to the story for Genesis Energy? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

NYSE:GEL Earnings & Revenue History as at Sep 2025 This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include GEL.

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