XRP Price Prediction: Holding the $3 Level, ETF Approval + Actual Adoption May Help XRP Reach $25 by Year-End?

The XRP price is currently holding steady at the $3 level, and market optimism towards the token is heating up. This is mainly due to two potential catalysts: first, the approval expectations for the US spot XRP ETF, with the decision date entering a busy window from October to November; second, its continued large-scale application in cross-border payments in Southeast Asia. However, recent on-chain data has shown signals that contradict the bullish sentiment.

Two Major Catalysts: ETF Approval and Real-World Applications

Against the backdrop of the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs, market expectations for the XRP ETF are rising sharply, which is seen as the primary driving force behind its price rise. According to the latest documents from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the final resolution dates for multiple Spot XRP ETF applications have been concentrated between October 18 and November 14, 2025, providing the market with a clear timetable. Analysts point out that if approved, these ETFs will open a legitimate and compliant channel for institutional funds, significantly enhancing XRP's liquidity and price discovery.

In addition, the actual application of XRP in Southeast Asia is accelerating, becoming another important pillar supporting its fundamentals. Through partnerships with collaborators such as SBI Remit, XRP has become the preferred bridging currency in cross-border payment networks, significantly improving transaction efficiency and reducing costs. This demand driven by practical utility is translating into higher transaction volumes on the XRP ledger, providing sustainable support for the Token price.

Technical Analysis and On-Chain Data Show Divergence

(Source: TradingView)

From a technical perspective, the XRP price is currently consolidating above the key psychological support level of 3 dollars after breaking through the resistance level of 3.15 dollars, setting the stage for the next potential breakout.

However, on-chain data conveys some complex signals. Despite reports that large holders have accumulated during the recent decline, the latest on-chain analysis shows that the flow of whales (large holders) has turned to net selling, which may put selling pressure on prices in the short term. Meanwhile, the open interest in the futures market continues to rise, indicating that traders are actively building positions, which may exacerbate future price volatility.

Short-term and Long-term Price Outlook

According to the analysis, if buyers can push the XRP price above $3.15 to $3.20, it is expected to advance towards $3.50 or even $3.66 in the short term. However, if it fails to hold the key support at $3, the price may retrace to the range of $2.80 to $2.90.

Looking ahead to the end of 2025, market experts have differing predictions. Some analysts, like Jake Claver of Digital Ascension Group, believe that the approval of the XRP ETF could drive the price soaring to $10-13, with an ambitious target of reaching $20-25 by the end of the year. However, some institutions take a more cautious stance, suggesting that even if the ETF is approved, the market may perform modestly in the short term due to economic downturns, and there could be a prolonged price slump until a meaningful recovery is expected in 2026.

Conclusion

XRP is at a critical juncture, with its future direction depending on the interaction between the external macro catalyst of ETF approval and the fundamental aspects of the token itself. Although the practical applications in Southeast Asia and favorable technical formations provide strong support for a bullish outlook, the conflicting signals from on-chain data remind investors that there is still uncertainty in the market. During the ETF decision window in October and November, the market will face a severe test, representing both an opportunity and a challenge to investors' judgment and risk tolerance.