Dogecoin Price Faces Its Toughest Test — Every Bounce Below Key Level Could Fail

Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently attempting a recovery (up 1.4% today), but its rally faces a significant hurdle: a critical resistance zone between $0.20 and $0.21 that has capped every recent bounce. The on-chain data reveals a conflict between long-term holders stepping back and short-to-mid-term buyers attempting to support the price.

I. The Critical Level and Selling Pressure

The main obstacle for Dogecoin is the concentrated supply of coins held by buyers near the $0.20–$0.21 price range. Critical Resistance Zone: The $0.20–$0.21 range is DOGE’s most stubborn short-term barrier.Cost Distribution: The Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap shows two massive supply clusters within this range, holding approximately 11.16 billion DOGE and 11.14 billion DOGE, respectively.The Problem: Every time the price rallies into this zone, these clusters trigger immediate selling pressure as holders exit near their breakeven points. This “supply pressure” has repeatedly stopped price advances since October 11, keeping DOGE price locked in a tight range.

II. Conflicting Holder Behavior (On-Chain Metrics)

The price is experiencing a push-and-pull dynamic between different holder groups: Long-Term Holders (LTHs) Stepping Back: The Hodler Net Position Change shows that long-term investors have been reducing their accumulation by 65% since mid-October. This suggests older investors are trimming their exposure after weeks of sideways weakness.Short- to Mid-Term Buyers Stepping In: In contrast, the 1-week to 1-month and the 3-month to 6-month holder groups have steadily increased their share of the supply. This indicates that newer and mid-term buyers are attempting to hold the line and provide buying support.

III. Price Forecast and Targets

The forecast is neutral to bearish until the key resistance is broken, requiring an aggressive move from whales to absorb the existing supply: Bullish Target: A definitive breakout above $0.21 (about a 12% move from current levels) could clear the path toward the next major target at $0.27.Bearish Targets: Slipping below $0.17 risks sending the Dogecoin price back toward the lower support level at $0.14.

Conclusion

Dogecoin is currently trapped, with the strong selling pressure from a massive supply cluster between $0.20 and $0.21 acting as a near-term ceiling. While short-term buyers are providing modest support, the lack of conviction from long-term holders suggests a sustained rally will be difficult without aggressive buying from whales. Failure to clear the $0.21 hurdle means the price will likely remain confined or risk a deeper correction toward $0.14.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and is based on third-party on-chain and technical analysis. The views expressed do not constitute financial or investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investment decisions should be preceded by thorough personal research (DYOR) and consultation with a qualified financial advisor.