This week's preview: A turnaround in the U.S. shutdown ignites the market, while core data from China and the U.S. face a "super test."

Written by: Oliver, Mars Finance

( November 10, 2025 - November 16, 2025 )

After experiencing a record U.S. government shutdown crisis, global markets welcomed a long-awaited “risk rally” during the Asian trading session on Monday (November 10). As Trump hinted that the shutdown was about to end, market uncertainty plummeted, and this week's trading focus quickly returned to fundamentals—the core economic “check-up report” of China and the U.S. as well as the performance results of global tech giants.

From the upcoming US CPI data on Thursday, to the intensive economic activity indicators in China on Friday, and the parade of tech giants such as Tencent, JD.com, and AMD, this week is undoubtedly a key “super week” that will determine the market direction for the fourth quarter.

1. Macro Main Line: The haze of stagnation has lifted, and data returns to the C position.

United States: Stalemate breakthrough boosts sentiment, CPI sets tone for rate cut in December

On Monday morning, spurred by news that the U.S. government is expected to end a 40-day shutdown, global risk assets collectively rebounded. Nasdaq futures led the way, Bitcoin broke through $106,000, and even gold and silver did not decline due to the increase in risk appetite; instead, they rose along with the stock market, reflecting strong market expectations for the recovery of liquidity.

Core Focus - Thursday CPI: As the shutdown comes to an end, concerns about the data being “delayed” have dissipated. Currently, the market expects the year-on-year CPI growth rate for October to slow to 2.9% (month-on-month 0.2%). If the data meets or falls below expectations, it will signal a “green light” for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates in December.

Liquidity Challenge: The Treasury will go “full throttle” this week, with intensive auctions totaling $125 billion in government bonds (Monday $58 billion 3-year, Wednesday $42 billion 10-year, Thursday $25 billion 30-year). Against the backdrop of low bank reserves, this wave of “drainage” raises concerns about whether it will trigger short-term liquidity tightness. On Monday morning, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has already risen to 4.13%.

Policy Noise: Trump's remarks about tariffs bringing “a $2,000 dividend per person” have sparked heated discussions, but have been “cooled down” by Treasury Secretary Becerra, clarifying that this may manifest in the form of tax cuts. The Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of tariffs remains the Damocles' sword hanging over us.

2. Industry Focus: Tech Giants “Flexing Muscles”

This week is a “key battle” for Chinese and American tech stocks, with hardware and internet giants intensively releasing signals.

Chips and AI (Tuesday): AMD will hold its annual Analyst Day. With strong competition from Nvidia, the market is highly focused on whether AMD can present a more convincing MI450 technology roadmap to support its high valuation. In addition, the financial report of the new AI computing powerhouse CoreWeave will also test the enthusiasm and sustainability of AI infrastructure investments.

China Internet (Wednesday/Thursday): Tencent, JD.com, and Bilibili will announce their financial reports. The market is particularly concerned about Tencent's gaming and advertising business's anti-cyclical capabilities (expected Q3 revenue growth of 14%), as well as JD.com's ability to maintain market share and restore profit margins amid fierce e-commerce price wars.

Operating System (Thursday - Friday): Huawei will hold an Operating System Conference to release an important version of openEuler in the AI field, further promoting the construction of the domestic basic software ecosystem.

3. Highlights of this week's calendar

At the beginning of this week, global markets reacted positively to the prospect of the U.S. shutdown coming to an end, with a significant recovery in risk asset sentiment. On Monday, attention should be focused on the opening performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, while also keeping an eye on the sporadically released October financial data from China as well as the anticipated release of Warren Buffett's shareholder letter.

On Tuesday, the market's focus will shift to AMD's annual analyst day to see if it can release positive catalysts for the stock price; the G7 foreign ministers' meeting will also be held on the same day. On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and several Federal Reserve officials will be making speeches, and the market will pay attention to their statements on the economic outlook after the shutdown; the earnings reports of Tencent (expected) and CoreWeave will also be disclosed on that day.

Thursday is the most critical “data night” of the week, with the U.S. October CPI data to be released at 21:30 Beijing time, directly affecting the Federal Reserve's December decision.

Investment theme summary: The market faced a “Risk-On” mode at the start of this week, but the sustainability of the trend will depend on whether the U.S. CPI aligns on Thursday and whether China's economic data on Friday can confirm the recovery logic. While liquidity is tested by the massive issuance of U.S. Treasuries, the performance of tech stocks will be the main driving force behind stock differentiation.