Vitalik: The prediction market should adopt a "decentralized Oracle Machine" + multi-signature mechanism to avoid malicious manipulation.

Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin wants to eliminate the manipulation of events by a single source of information in the prediction market, and only by using distributed oracles and implementing multiple resolution mechanisms can investors not be misled. (Synopsis: Vitalik new article: Low-risk DeFi is to Ethereum what search is to Google) (Background added: Wall Street is a huge threat to Ethereum!) Vitalik: They are users, we are “professional users”) X platform user @0xinternetchild posted on November 6, accusing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank, of deliberately marking a completely unfounded Russian army advance area on its public map an hour before the settlement of a Russian-Ukrainian war prediction market on Polymarket. As a result, the market price surged from 0.3 cents to nearly $1 in an instant. However, after the forecast project was settled, this “mysterious promotion area” was quickly withdrawn. In this regard, the user listed four major pieces of evidence in the post: No independent cartographers (including the most pro-Russian accounts) marked the area as controlled by the Russian army There were no reports or images of Russian troops entering the area that day The modified area happens to be located at the “meeting point of resolution” clearly designated in the Polymarket market rules The modification occurred 1 hour before settlement and was reinstated immediately after settlement The user called for “open and deliberate fraud” and called on Polymarket to immediately deactivate ISW as the source of the resolution , otherwise “all traders involved in war-related markets will be misled.” Vitalik: Distributed oracles are the right medicine In this regard, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin commented after seeing the post: It should have been a combination of ISW, DeepStateMap and Liveuamap, and adopted a 2-of-3 multiple resolution mechanism. Only distributed oracles (and in some cases distributed decisions) are a natural way to resist such problems. Vitalik's proposal is seen as the most feasible short-term solution at the moment: instead of relying on a single agency, it is better to have three entities that have been tracking the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield (or other events) for a long time, with different styles but open sources, provide information on the event, as long as two of them agree on the settlement, which greatly reduces the risk of single point of manipulation. shoulda done a 2-of-3 between ISW, deepstatemap and liveuamap Distributed oracles (and in some situations, distributed decision making) is the natural way to be robust to these kinds of things — vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) November 20, 2025 Related Stories Vitalik's praise for ZKsync may really underestimate Vitalik Shanghai Speech: The History of Cryptography and the Significance of ZK Vitalik calls on ZK and FHE developers to “show the encryption ratio directly”: you can see the difference at a glance and then talk about optimization “Vitalik: The prediction market should adopt “distributed oracles” + multiple resolution mechanisms to avoid malicious manipulation” This article was first published in BlockTempo's “Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media”.