MSTR options release a highly bearish signal, MSCI exclusion risk may exacerbate stock price volatility

As MSCI is set to announce on January 15 whether it will remove MicroStrategy (now called Strategy) from its index, MSTR stock is facing significant market pressure. The options market has already signaled an “extremely bearish” outlook, with investor concerns about future trends rapidly intensifying. Against the backdrop of a temporary weakening of Bitcoin, MSTR, as a high-leverage Bitcoin concept stock, exhibits particularly volatile sentiment swings.

Data from Barchart shows that recent trading volume of MSTR put options has increased markedly, with the put-to-call ratio continuing to rise. As of press time, the Put/Call ratio for contracts expiring on January 9 has reached 1.57, while the key strike price for contracts expiring on January 16 has been pushed down to 3.55, reflecting market bets on downside risk. This structure typically indicates institutional hedging against a potential deep correction.

The core market concern revolves around the risk of MSTR being removed from the MSCI index. If that happens, passive funds may be forced to reduce their holdings, potentially triggering a chain reaction of selling in the short term. Meanwhile, the mNAV continues to decline, dilution expectations persist, and historical bear markets have seen sharp retracements, further amplifying market anxiety. Since the beginning of the year, MSTR has fallen over 47%, significantly underperforming Bitcoin, which has only declined about 5% during the same period.

Nevertheless, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor continues to signal plans to increase Bitcoin holdings. He posted a cryptic message on social media hinting at a “return to orange,” which the market interprets as an imminent announcement of a new Bitcoin buy. This strategy has reignited controversy, including public skepticism from gold supporter Peter Schiff regarding the source of Saylor’s funds.

Overall, MSTR stock is in a highly sensitive phase. The extremely bearish options structure, MSCI index adjustment expectations, and Bitcoin price volatility form a triple short-term pressure. The future trend will depend on MSCI’s final decision and whether Bitcoin can stabilize again. MSTR’s high volatility characteristics are unlikely to subside in the near term.