NYDIG警告:AI或引发货币宽松周期,比特币迎来潜在宏观利好

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3月2日消息,加密金融机构 NYDIG 研究主管 Greg Cipolaro 表示,若人工智能对劳动力市场和经济结构产生冲击,迫使全球央行采取更宽松的货币政策,比特币可能成为主要受益资产之一。

Cipolaro在最新研究报告中指出,人工智能有潜力像电力一样成为“通用技术”,其对生产力、就业结构以及风险偏好的影响,可能逐渐传导至宏观流动性环境,而这些因素长期以来都是比特币价格的重要驱动变量。

报告称,如果人工智能推动经济增长,同时伴随流动性扩张和实际利率受到压制,这种宏观环境通常对比特币等稀缺资产更为友好。但若技术进步带来更强劲的经济增长并推高真实收益率,央行可能收紧政策,从而对比特币形成压力。

另一方面,如果人工智能导致就业结构出现震荡,例如岗位替代速度快于新职位创造,各国政府可能通过财政扩张和货币宽松稳定经济,这种流动性释放往往会提升风险资产的吸引力,其中包括比特币。

人工智能对企业组织结构的影响已经显现。近期,科技企业开始将AI纳入重组计划。社交媒体创始人 Jack Dorsey 表示,其金融科技公司 Block 正因AI转型而裁减约40%的员工,并预计未来会有更多企业采取类似措施。

与此同时,研究机构 Goldman Sachs 此前报告指出,人工智能普及可能影响美国约7%的工作岗位,但同时也可能创造新的就业机会并提升生产效率。

Cipolaro认为,从历史经验来看,每一次重大技术革新都会带来短期阵痛,但最终社会往往选择整合技术而非排斥它。能够有效利用人工智能的企业可能扩大盈利能力,而积极适应AI技能的劳动者也将获得更高价值。对于加密市场而言,人工智能带来的宏观政策变化,或成为影响比特币中长期走势的重要变量。(Cointelegraph)

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