The Bitcoin market is undergoing profound changes. Recent data shows that Wall Street financial institutions have accumulated 515,000 Bitcoins through ETF products, storing them in cold wallets. This phenomenon marks a shift in the market from its early speculative nature to a more mature long-term investment model.
As the market evolves, the increase in Bitcoin's value shows a trend of gradual narrowing. From 80 times in 2017, to 20 times in 2021, and then to a recent 6.6 times, the profit margin continues to compress. At the same time, the holding period for institutional investors has also extended from 3 months to 15 months, reflecting their preference for long-term positioning rather than short-term speculation.
This shift has had a significant impact on retail investors. On-chain data shows a sharp decline in the number of active addresses, with some blockchain platforms experiencing a sudden drop in trading volume. For example, the trading volume of DEXE on Solana has decreased by 80%. These signs indicate that the opportunities for small funds to make quick profits are diminishing.
Although a bull market may still emerge in the future, the difficulty of accumulating wealth through a single market cycle is increasing. The current market capitalization of Bitcoin has reached $1.7 trillion, and the amount of capital needed to drive it further up far exceeds that of the past. Grayscale's research report also points out that the peak growth rate of each cycle shows a decreasing trend, reflecting the increasingly mature characteristics of the market.
In the face of this new situation, investors need to adjust their strategies, possibly requiring longer investment periods and more professional analytical skills. In a market environment dominated by institutions, compliance and long-term value will become important considerations in investment decisions.