Those digital assets buried deep within hard drives are silently rewriting the true scarcity of Bitcoin. Remember the story in front of the landfill? An IT engineer from Wales once wept over this— in 2013, he mistakenly discarded a hard drive containing the private keys for 8,000 Bitcoins, losing up to $950 million. Similar tragedies are countless: Ripple’s former CTO forgot the password for 7,002 BTC; the sudden death of a CEO at a Canadian exchange directly locked in ownership of nearly $200 million. Behind these stories lies a deeper truth. Bitcoin’s theoretical cap is 21 million coins, but the actual circulating supply is already far below that number. By the end of 2024, approximately 19.8 million Bitcoins will be in circulation, with only about 1.2 million remaining to be mined. But the question is— is that really all? On the contrary. Those vanished Bitcoins form an astonishingly large pool of permanent loss. In the early ecosystem, due to low BTC prices, many holders were careless with their private key backups, and loss events occurred frequently. While blockchain transparency is extremely high, we can never accurately determine whether an address has been long idle or has been completely lost. As an analyst who has been in this industry for many years, I want to honestly talk with everyone— beneath the surface numbers of Bitcoin’s scarcity, how many stories are hidden in the forgotten hard drive graves.

Others celebrate holidays with "candlelight dinners," but in the crypto world, it's "candlelight K-lines." However, this time it's a bit different. Talking about this year's Christmas Eve market, most investors are still lamenting that they didn't receive the anticipated holiday gift. Bitcoin is stuck around $87,000, down nearly 30% from its all-time high, while Ethereum is barely holding above $2,900. The market sentiment index has already fallen to the "extreme fear" level, but a closer look reveals underlying currents behind this panic. While retail investors are panicking and selling off, large institutions are quietly entering the market—this is the game of smart money. A detail worth noting: an institution associated with a well-known analyst has built a position of 67,000 ETH in the past 24 hours, worth approximately $201 million. This is definitely not a random move but a clear signal of institutional funds in action. **Where does the pressure come from?** This morning, as I opened my eyes, the community was full of complaints. The US Q3 GDP data was released at 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 3.3%. Good economic data should be positive, but instead, it became a weight on the crypto market. Strong economic performance suggests the Federal Reserve may slow down its rate cuts, and in a high-interest-rate environment, funds tend to flow into stable assets, putting risk assets at the forefront. Bitcoin subsequently plunged, once touching the support level of $88,000. On the surface, the market does seem to be weakening. **But the real story is beneath the surface** Panic often hides opportunities. When retail investors are driven by emotion to sell off, experienced institutional investors are actually positioning themselves. Besides that large Ethereum purchase, other institutions are also continuously increasing their Bitcoin holdings. This kind of contrarian operation frequently appears during extreme market sentiment, reflecting the advantage of big funds in information. Historically, extreme fear is often the night before extreme greed. When most people are fleeing, the real opportunity is often waiting right there. This correction could be the golden window for rebalancing positions.

Recently, I reviewed the market trends, and the performance differences among several mainstream cryptocurrencies are quite significant. BTC has fallen from 12600 to now, with a decline of about 30%. BNB's situation is even worse, dropping from 1370 by 38.5%. ETH has decreased from 4953 by nearly 40 points; it hasn't fared much better in this drop. Conversely, USDT has been relatively resilient, falling from 7.3 to 6.9, a decrease of only 5.4%. Interestingly, some people managed the adjustment quite well. Although their holdings are all declining, the loss is only 8.5%. Compared to the drops in other coins, this performance is quite impressive. It seems that understanding risk management and timely rebalancing can really help reduce losses in a bear market.