JPMorgan Chase has raised the probability of the US economy entering a recession by the end of the year to 35%.

Jin Shi Data News on August 8th, JPMorgan Chase now believes that there is a 35% chance that the US economy will fall into recession by the end of this year, higher than the 25% at the beginning of last month. In a report to clients on Wednesday led by Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chase economists wrote that the US news “implies that the weakening of labor demand is more severe than expected, and preliminary signs of layoffs have appeared.” The team maintains a 45% probability of the economy falling into recession in the second half of 2025. “We have moderately raised our assessment of the risk of economic recession, and our assessment of the outlook for interest rates has been adjusted to a greater extent,” Kasman and his colleagues wrote. JPMorgan Chase now believes that there is only a 30% chance that the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks will maintain interest rates at high levels in the long term, compared to the 50% probability predicted just two months ago. With the decline in US inflationary pressures, JPMorgan Chase expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and November respectively.