McKinsey's Major Report: Defining 13 Cutting-edge Technologies for the Next Five Years

From the roar of the steam engine to the silent revolution of the Internet, the waves of technology have continuously reshaped the face of the world in unexpected ways.

Today, we are standing on the eve of a more profound technological revolution—artificial intelligence has learned to “think”, robots have stepped out of the factory walls, semiconductors are beginning to become the “new oil” of the intelligent era, and space is transforming from an unreachable dream into a new commercial frontier.

Looking at the present, which technologies will define the next five or even ten years?

The latest report by McKinsey, “Technology Trends Outlook 2025,” attempts to answer this question by presenting 13 cutting-edge technology trends with the potential to transform global business. It outlines the development blueprint of these technologies from four dimensions: innovation, attention, capital investment, and application level.

Looking around, capital is highly concentrated in areas such as AI, future energy and sustainable technology, and future mobility, which are moving from technological breakthroughs to deep application waters, with AI leading the way in both attention and innovation.

In contrast, while specific application semiconductors, advanced connectivity technologies, future biotechnology, cloud and edge computing, digital trust, and cybersecurity may not be as hot as AI, they have quietly become the “infrastructure” for the operation of a digital society, with their level of application approaching scalability.

However, immersive reality technology, future space technology, future robotics technology, quantum technology, AI agents, and other technologies are still in the incubation stage, but their revolutionary potential is showing signs. For example, AI agents have become one of the fastest-growing hot trends this year, with equity investment reaching $1.1 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1562%.

Visitors experience the Yungang Grottoes through AR glasses.

In fact, regardless of which technological trend it is, it will reshape the industry landscape and has already become an indispensable competitive chip for countries and enterprises.

In China, these technologies have been included in the key industry track directory aimed at 2035, with clear development goals listed. Taking the future space sector as an example, the market size in China is expected to exceed 800 billion yuan by 2030, with key development directions including manned low-altitude flight, deep space, deep earth and deep sea exploration, and polar development.

Here, we summarize the key information and data from the McKinsey report and discuss with everyone the cutting-edge dynamics, development trends, and talent demands of these technologies.

13 Tracks and Trillions of Opportunities

In the face of these 13 cutting-edge technologies, McKinsey categorizes them into three major categories based on their intrinsic “character”: AI revolution, computing and connectivity frontiers, and advanced engineering.

It can be said that these three major categories of technology are responsible for “thinking,” “connecting,” and “doing.” They penetrate each other, stimulate one another, and continuously outline a complete picture of the technological wave in the next decade.

◎ The first category, the AI revolution, includes AI and AI agents. With the continuous expansion of AI's influence, it is noteworthy that the current costs of AI are rapidly decreasing, such as the price of some reasoning tasks dropping 900 times within a year.

Regarding these two segmented technologies, McKinsey believes that AI is not only a revolutionary and strategic technological innovation in itself but can also accelerate the development of other technological fields or create new “business opportunities” in cross-disciplinary areas. For example, AI is an important catalyst for the technology of specific application semiconductors.

Another AI agent technology has become the “rising star” this year, quickly becoming an important development direction in both enterprise and consumer technology fields. The so-called AI agent is like a “virtual colleague” that can autonomously plan and execute multi-step tasks.

Currently, major companies are adding agent features to existing AI products or developing brand new applications aimed at specific tasks, especially in fields like software coding and mathematics, where there are strong training datasets, making rapid progress.

The market has also sensed the trend. MarketsandMarkets predicts that the AI agent market size will soar from $5.1 billion in 2024 to $47.1 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 44.8%.

◎ The second category, computing and connecting frontiers, these technologies can be understood as the “skeleton” of AI and the digital world, including specialized application semiconductors, advanced connectivity technologies, cloud and edge computing, immersive reality technologies, digital trust and cybersecurity, and quantum technologies.

Among them, application-specific semiconductors are another important trend specifically mentioned in the report. These chips, tailored for specific AI tasks, are becoming the “new oil” in the tech world—leading all technology trends in patent numbers and attracting $7.5 billion in investment last year.

At the same time, the development of AI has an insatiable demand for computing power, which relies on the technological trend of cloud and edge computing. McKinsey's research indicates that by 2030, global demand for data center capacity could approach nearly three times what it is today, with about 70% of that demand coming from AI workloads.

In addition, in terms of advanced connectivity technology, 5G has covered 2.25 billion users globally, with China leading the world in 5G standalone networking deployment, while 6G is on the way and ready to bring new skill sets such as “sensing.” As for immersive reality technology, AR/VR has transitioned from gaming to healthcare and industrial design, with devices like Apple Vision Pro and Meta Quest redefining human-computer interaction; in the field of quantum technology, although still at the forefront, giants like Google, IBM, and Microsoft have made key breakthroughs in error correction and stability.

These technologies are like the relay stations and roads on the ancient Silk Road; although they do not directly produce goods, they determine the scale and boundaries of commerce.

◎ The third category, cutting-edge engineering, includes future robotics technology, future mobility, future bioengineering, future space technology, and future energy and sustainable technologies. They are responsible for the “materialization” of digital capabilities, bringing technology out from the screen.

Over the past sixty years, robots have gradually become a common presence in advanced manufacturing, with more than four million industrial robots currently working in environments such as automobile factories. Meanwhile, driven by the acceleration of AI, physical robot technology has entered broader fields in recent years, including airports, large stores, and restaurants. McKinsey partner Ani Kelkar predicts that by 2040, its market size will reach approximately $900 billion.

In the future mobility sector, China's electric vehicle market has grown against the trend by 36%. Autonomous driving, drone delivery, and air taxis are also moving from concept to pilot programs, and even achieving commercial implementation. It is expected that by 2034, the market size of commercial drone delivery will reach $29 billion, with an annual compound growth rate of as high as 40%.

Future biotechnology involves the use of technologies (such as gene editing and synthetic biology) to improve health and human functions, reshape the food value chain, and create innovative products. For instance, the gene editing technology CRISPR was the first to receive FDA approval, while AI is significantly reducing the cost and time of new drug development. The 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded to three researchers who used AI to predict existing protein structures and design new proteins.

In the future of energy and sustainable technology, China not only dominates global photovoltaic manufacturing but also accounts for 60% of the world's hydrogen electrolysis capacity. Furthermore, nuclear energy has gained significant attention for its ability to provide stable baseload power, with 31 countries committing to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050.

Six Major Trends Regarding These Technologies

Through the trend forecast of these 13 cutting-edge technologies, McKinsey also summarized six major trends in the report, which can serve as a reference for our focus on these cutting-edge technologies.

① The Rise of Autonomous Systems

The system no longer just executes commands, but can learn, adapt, and collaborate.

When AI agents can autonomously plan workflows, when robots can adapt to unfamiliar environments, and when autonomous vehicles can navigate complex urban conditions, we must consider: where is the unique value of humanity? The answer may lie in creativity, ethical judgment, and strategic vision—qualities that are difficult for machines to replicate.

② New Human-Machine Collaboration Model

Human-computer interaction is entering a new stage, characterized by more natural interfaces, multimodal input, and adaptive intelligence, which will gradually blur the boundaries between “operators” and “co-creators.”

From immersive training environments and haptic robot technology to voice-driven “co-pilots” and sensor wearable devices, technology is responding more accurately to human intentions and behaviors. This evolution shifts the positioning of human-machine relationships from “machines replacing humans” to “machines enhancing human” capabilities.

③ Challenges of Large-scale Application

The surge in demand for compute-intensive workloads (especially from AI agents, future robots, and immersive reality technologies) is putting new pressure on global infrastructure. But the reality is: tight electricity supply, fragile chip supply chains, and lengthy data center construction cycles…

This means that the large-scale application of cutting-edge technologies requires not only solving issues related to technical architecture and efficient design but also addressing the complex real-world challenges at the levels of talent, policy, and execution. It reminds us that the prosperity of the digital world cannot be separated from the support of the physical world.

④Regional and National Competition

It is undeniable that control over key technologies has become the focus of global competition. The competition between China and the United States in fields such as chips, AI, and quantum computing is becoming increasingly intense, while Europe is also trying to establish its own digital sovereignty through regulations like the Artificial Intelligence Act.

Technology is no longer a borderless public good; it has become the cornerstone of national security and a symbol of economic sovereignty. In this context, global technological cooperation faces challenges, but it also creates opportunities for regions to develop their distinctive advantages.

⑤ Parallel development of scale and specialization

Innovations in cloud services and advanced connectivity technologies are driving the development of scaling and specialization. On one hand, we see the rapid expansion of general model training infrastructure in large and energy-consuming data centers; on the other hand, we also observe an acceleration of innovations on the “edge side,” with low-power technologies being embedded in mobile phones, cars, home control systems, and industrial equipment.

This dual-track development has not only led to the emergence of large language models with an astonishing number of parameters but has also promoted the increasing richness of domain-specific AI tools that can operate in almost any scenario.

The necessity of responsible innovation

As technology becomes increasingly powerful and more personalized, trust is becoming a key barrier to technology adoption. Companies are under growing pressure to demonstrate that their AI models, gene editing technologies, or immersive platforms are transparent, fair, and accountable.

Ethics is no longer just the right choice; it is also a strategic lever in the deployment process—it can accelerate or hinder scaling, investment decisions, and long-term impacts.

Where do funds and talent go?

Finally, let's talk about the “financial prospects” and “human landscape” of these cutting-edge technologies, and see where capital and talent are flowing.

In 2024, the investment market for these 13 cutting-edge technologies is beginning to warm up, among which AI, cloud, and edge computing have achieved relatively outstanding “results” in terms of investment scale and growth rate.

If we talk about the absolute gathering place of capital, the five most “money-making” frontier technologies in 2024 are: Future Energy and Sustainable Technology ($223.2 billion), Future Mobility ($131.6 billion), AI ($124.3 billion), Cloud and Edge Computing ($80.8 billion), Digital Trust and Cybersecurity ($77.8 billion).

In terms of growth momentum, AI agent technology is “booming,” with investment soaring by 1562% in 2024; in the future, biotechnology and cloud and edge computing technologies have achieved financing growth for two consecutive years; after a brief decline, investment in AI and future robotics technology is expected to recover to a higher level than two years ago in 2024.

It is worth mentioning that, in sync with the flow of capital, a silent war for talent has also begun.

McKinsey mentioned in its report that, based on recruitment data, the demand for six cutting-edge technology positions is growing in 2024, with talent demand for AI agents skyrocketing by 985%. The demand for AI and specific application semiconductor positions has also increased by 35% and 22%, respectively. In terms of specific positions, software engineers can be considered the most sought-after positions.

It is worth noting that the demand for skilled talent reveals a harsh reality: the speed of technological evolution far exceeds the speed of talent cultivation. In the two hottest technology fields, AI and specific application semiconductors, the imbalance between supply and demand for talent is particularly evident.

The demand for data scientists is most urgent, with a talent supply-demand ratio of only 0.5 (that is, 2 positions competing for 1 talent), which means that companies are vying for individuals who can handle data and build models using Python. In the specific application semiconductor field, the situation is even more extreme—experts proficient in GPU architecture and machine learning hardware have a supply-demand ratio as low as 0.1, equivalent to ten positions waiting for a suitable candidate.

The future fields of robotics technology and biotechnology are calling for a new type of “cross-disciplinary talent.” In the field of future robotics technology, there is a need for both mechanical engineers and AI, software engineering experts, with a talent demand ratio for those skilled in artificial intelligence at 0.2. In the future biotechnology field, a talent who can design robotic arms and program them for intelligent grasping is even more scarce.

In the fields of future energy and sustainable technology, as well as future space technology, which represent humanity's future, the “talent shortage” is becoming increasingly evident. For instance, the supply-demand ratio for talents with “green skills,” including expertise in clean energy and sustainable development, is lower than 0.1. This means that for every ten related positions, there may be fewer than one qualified applicant. Although the overall number of positions in the future space technology sector is adjusting downwards, the demand for software engineers and Python experts remains strong, as there is a vast amount of satellite data that needs to be processed and analyzed every day.

These data also indicate that in the future, talent development will require more than just pure coding skills; composite talents that combine “technology + scenarios”, “software + hardware”, and “algorithms + ethics” will become the most scarce resources in the next decade.

Conclusion

Looking back, standing at the threshold of this great technological era, China finds itself in a complex and delicate position.

At the application level, our achievements are remarkable: the wide coverage of 5G networks, the high penetration rate of electric vehicles, the dominant position in photovoltaic manufacturing, and the leading commercial applications of drones, all of which are real “Chinese advantages.” However, at the foundational level, the “choke point” risks still exist in areas such as semiconductor manufacturing, underlying AI models, quantum computing, and original technologies in biomedicine.

McKinsey's report gives us perhaps the greatest insight: the competition of the future will no longer be a breakthrough in individual technology points, but rather a competition of ecosystems, talent systems, and values.