3月6日消息，参议员Chris Murphy宣布，他计划提出一项法案，限制公众在与政府军事行动和官方政策决策相关的预测市场进行投注。墨菲指出，近期有交易员在美国与以色列空袭伊朗前通过相关合约获利，引发对内幕交易风险的担忧。
链上数据显示，区块链分析公司 Bubblemaps 发现六个新近注资的钱包与 Polymarket 的一份空袭合约相关联。这些钱包总共获利约 98.9 万美元。其中，最大钱包将 6.08 万美元仓位转化为 49.4 万美元利润，交易发生在军事行动前数小时。另有名为 “Planktonbets” 的钱包在七次交易中获利约 17.4 万美元，“Dicedicedice” 钱包单次交易获利约 11.9 万美元。墨菲在 X 平台指出，这类获利行为可能源于掌握内幕消息的人。
该法案拟禁止与战争或政治演讲相关的市场交易，但对美联储政策决策等金融合约仍保留例外。众议员迈克·莱文也在众议院推动配套法案，他提到 Polymarket 用户 “Magamyman” 在袭击消息公开前不到两小时就获利约 51.5 万美元。
预测市场的内幕交易问题近年来引发监管关注。以色列检察官近期起诉一名预备役军人和一名平民，指控他们利用机密情报对伊朗袭击时间下注。尽管监管趋严，市场交易量仍在增长。数据显示，Kalshi 在 2 月交易量达 104 亿美元，Polymarket 同期交易量约 79 亿美元，总计约 183 亿美元。
分析人士认为，此类法案旨在维护市场诚信，防止敏感信息被滥用，同时平衡预测市场的合法金融功能。两党议员均强调，加强监管有助于防止地缘政治下注对国家安全和公众信心造成潜在风险。
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