Gate News 消息，3 月 11 日，Polymarket 预测市场数据显示，2 名交易员合计投入 1.32 万美元，买入「霍尔木兹海峡在 4 月 30 日前恢复通航」的「否」选项。这些押注的开仓均价为 45¢，目前「否」选项的概率为 46%。市场普遍认为美国总统特朗普担忧原油价格飙升可能引发通胀反弹，正寻求尽快结束冲突。伊朗方面则在霍尔木兹海峡采取非对称战术，CNN 援引信息源披露，伊朗近期已在海峡投放数十枚水雷。根据该盘口定义，如果在 4 月 30 日前，IMF Portwatch 发布的霍尔木兹海峡 7 日移动平均船舶通行量（涵盖集装箱船、干散货船、油轮等）达到或超过 60 艘，盘口即结算为「是」。根据交易画像判断，该交易者可能在某一时间点止盈或止损，而非押注事件最终结果。交易账户为：0x1c72797cd4b9b83f42e287144e334c4de347dfb6；0xa81eefec9c08fa157d855f1ac5caf8feab1903dc。
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