Gate News 消息，比特币价格近期持续在6.5万至7.5万美元区间震荡，市场缺乏明确方向。除地缘冲突与宏观利率环境外，机构投资者的期权策略正被认为是限制行情突破的重要因素。
自2026年2月中旬以来，比特币多次冲击7万美元关口未果。一方面，中东局势带来的避险需求为价格提供底部支撑，使其难以跌破6.5万美元；另一方面，美国国债收益率上行削弱风险资产吸引力，抑制上行空间。
更深层的原因来自衍生品市场。Tesseract首席执行官James Harris指出，机构资金在一季度持续卖出高行权价看涨期权，通过收取权利金获取额外收益。这种“备兑看涨期权”策略建立在现货持仓基础上，使投资者在横盘行情中也能获得稳定回报。
这一操作将大量风险转移至做市商。由于做市商持有正伽玛头寸，他们需要在价格下跌时买入、上涨时卖出，以维持风险中性。这种对冲行为在无形中形成“高抛低吸”的机制，从而压缩价格波动区间，使比特币长期维持震荡结构。
市场数据也印证了这一现象。比特币30天隐含波动率指数（BVIV）近期下滑至约56%，与股票、大宗商品波动上升形成对比，说明市场波动被人为压制。
当前，比特币走势不仅受宏观环境影响，也深度绑定衍生品结构。当收益策略主导资金行为时，价格可能继续维持区间震荡。未来能否突破关键区间，将取决于资金配置变化以及波动率是否重新释放。（CoinDesk）
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