市场分析：满足市场大额换手、MVRV-Z分数低于0等三个条件后才会抄底建仓

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bitcoin news Market Analysis

Source: Odaily星球日报

2026-02-02 02:07:14

BTC-4,15%

BCH-12,85%

Odaily星球日报讯憨厚的麦总在 X 平台发文表示，其已在 9 月降息前后清仓，并持续看空市场。其认为今年流动性不会变好，并继续看熊。其将在满足三个条件后才会抄底建立长期仓位：

二级市场出现绝对的大额换手交易量（投降）；
MVRV-Z 分数跌至 0 以下，当前该指标为 0.77；
出现类似 FTX 事件或 BCH 分叉的“BTC 投降性”事件。

其表示，已为市场再下跌 40-50%做准备，当上述条件满足时将会满仓进入。

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