Garrett Jin:风险资产将在霍尔木兹海峡重新开放前持续承压

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Gate News 消息,3 月 10 日,「BTC OG 内幕巨鲸」代理人 Garrett Jin 在社交媒体发文分析霍尔木兹海峡危机对市场的影响。他表示,在 3 月 9 日上涨前的 85 美元/桶水平,布伦特原油的定价反映的是持续几天到两周的供应中断;而在 119.5 美元/桶时,市场已经开始计入供应破坏的可能性,但对全久期的重新定价才刚刚开始。

Garrett Jin 指出,霍尔木兹危机的影响通过独立且相互强化的层面传导,其结果不仅仅是避险情绪上升,而是跨资产相关性、地理风险分布以及市场对极端事件持续时间定价意愿的制度性改变。在霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的可靠路径出现之前,风险资产将持续承压,即便届时危机缓解,重建保险机制本身也需要 3 至 6 周时间。

他认为,风险资产的上涨情景是霍尔木兹海峡重新开放,或者通过成功峰会达成停火,或发生其他潜在利好事件;而下行情景(外交失败、海峡长期关闭)则没有历史定价参考。无论哪种情况,近期趋势都是原油、利率和通胀预期的久期溢价走高,而风险资产将在可行解决方案出现前持续承压。

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