Next week, US employment data is coming: will the unemployment rate rise or fall?

Question

【Crypto World】New Year Kickoff: US Treasury Yields Fluctuate, Slight Overall Increase. Currently, the market is waiting for next week’s data deluge—especially the release of employment indicators. Starting with Wednesday’s ADP employment report, followed by Friday’s non-farm payroll data (which is the first release since September last year according to the regular schedule), investors will be highly attentive.

Institutions have differing views on the direction of the unemployment rate. Caprock Macro believes the unemployment rate will slightly decline from the current 4.6% to 4.5%, which appears optimistic; however, Citigroup’s view is the opposite, predicting the unemployment rate will rise to 4.7%. This 1-2 percentage point difference could directly impact the subsequent asset flows. US Treasury yields, stock markets, and crypto markets are all closely watching these data to guide their moves.

ChainWatcher · Accepted Answer

Citibank says the unemployment rate has risen to 4.7% ? Then the crypto circle might shake a bit

Another week of data betting begins, a 0.1-0.2% difference can have such a big impact, it's incredible

ADP kicks things off, waiting for the truth to be revealed on Friday

This non-farm payroll data is not following the usual pattern, feels like there will be surprises

As long as the unemployment rate doesn't spike wildly, a 0.1% drop will make the market go wild? That's a bit exaggerated

Next week, when this data bomb drops, short sellers will probably be chopped again

Citi and Cathie Wood are directly betting against each other, I want to see who gets proven wrong

Just this 0.2% difference can influence asset flows, the market is really fragile

ApeWithNoFear · Answer

Can the difference in unemployment rate really turn the tide? Citigroup and Capital Economics are going against each other, I bet the non-farm payroll data will cause a market crash.

SatsStacking · Answer

A 0.1% difference in unemployment rate can determine life or death, this is the current market... Watching Citigroup and Capital Economics clash like this, next week's data should be explosive when released.

GhostInTheChain · Answer

Citibank says the unemployment rate has risen to 4.7%? Then my short position is about to take off... Wait, and then Kantar says it will decrease, who can I believe?

FloorSweeper · Answer

lmao everyone's acting like 4.5% vs 4.7% is some huge deal... watch the paper hands capitulate the moment it hits 4.7%, that's when real accumulation starts fr

OneBlockAtATime · Answer

Another round of data betting, a 0.1-0.2 percentage point change in the unemployment rate can turn the market upside down, truly remarkable.

Next week, US employment data is coming: will the unemployment rate rise or fall?

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