HTX DeepThink: Trump vs. Powell controversy temporarily subsides, macro data takes over to reprice the crypto market

Deep Tide TechFlow News, January 19, - HTX DeepThink Columnist and HTX Research Analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) pointed out that the core background of this week’s crypto market is “political uncertainty easing, macro data regaining pricing power.” Trump’s attempt to pressure Federal Reserve Chair Powell through judicial means quickly cooled down amid opposition from the Senate and within the Republican Party, and the market generally believes that the related investigations are unlikely to produce substantial consequences. Coupled with the latest CPI not exceeding expectations and core inflation remaining at 2.6%, which in the short term has not created new pressure on liquidity and risk assets, the external environment of the crypto market remains relatively stable.

However, the more critical variable this week is the re-pricing of the “interest rate cut path” based on inflation and growth data: the December core PCE released on Wednesday, the preliminary PMI on Friday, and the revised GDP data will influence whether the market continues to fully price in a rate cut in January. If PCE remains sticky and PMI shows economic resilience, expectations for rate cuts may be further pushed back, which could be less favorable for high Beta altcoins in the short term, but Bitcoin is more likely to perform as a high-level consolidation rather than a trend decline.

At the same time, the impact of geopolitical factors cannot be ignored. Although the situation in Iran has temporarily eased, the deployment of US aircraft carriers to the Middle East indicates that risk premiums have not fully dissipated, and potential upward pressure on energy prices affecting inflation expectations should still be watched. Overall, the crypto market is in a phase of “macro support and data disturbance,” more like a transition period for mid-term re-pricing rather than the start of a one-sided trend.