Bitcoin pumps to 200,000 USD? Analyst: Elliott's fifth wave is coming, alts season countdown.

As Bitcoin prices continue to withstand market headwinds and consolidate above $108,000, digital asset analyst CrediBULL Crypto stated that the next parabolic rise of Bitcoin could trigger the largest altcoin pump in market history. Bitcoin is currently in the early stages of its fifth wave, a phase that has historically brought about the most explosive price rebounds during a bull run.

Elliott Wave fifth wave indicates a target of 200,000 USD

(Source: Trading View)

Digital asset analyst CrediBULL Crypto stated that the next parabolic rise of Bitcoin could trigger the largest altcoin pump in market history. The analyst shared Elliott Wave chart analysis, indicating that Bitcoin is in the early stages of its fifth wave, which historically has led to some of the most explosive price rebounds during a bull run.

The Elliott Wave Theory is a classic tool in technical analysis, positing that market prices follow predictable wave patterns. A complete bull run cycle consists of five upward waves (marked as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) and three corrective waves (marked as A, B, C). Among these, the third wave is usually the longest and strongest upward segment, while the fifth wave represents the final frenzy phase, driven by extreme optimism and FOMO.

According to the chart, the first sub-wave of the fifth wave has already produced a 37% pump, indicating that the upcoming third and fifth waves could be much larger, potentially driving Bitcoin prices well above $150,000, even rushing towards the $200,000 mark. CrediBULL Crypto believes that this bullish trend is not based on logic or fundamentals, but rather on market psychology, particularly speculation, greed, and excitement. He revealed that this emotional environment often leads to extreme volatility, thereby stimulating liquidity to shift towards altcoins.

Although this prediction is aggressive, it is not without historical precedent. During the 2017 bull run, Bitcoin soared from $1,000 at the beginning of the year to $20,000 in December, a staggering increase of 20 times. In the 2021 bull run, Bitcoin rose from $20,000 at the end of 2020 to $69,000, an increase of 3.45 times. If it rises from the current $108,000 to $200,000, the increase would be about 85%, which is reasonable compared to the final stages of historical bull runs.

CrediBULL Crypto emphasizes the critical failure level near $74,000, indicating that as long as the Bitcoin price stays above this region, its long-term upward trend will remain intact. This failure level is derived from the Elliott wave structure, and a breach would disrupt the entire wave count, necessitating a reevaluation of the market structure. Currently, Bitcoin is at $108,000, approximately 46% away from $74,000, showing that the current position is still within the bull run structure.

Elliott's Fifth Wave Three-Stage Forecast:

First Sub-Wave (Completed): 37% pump, confirming the start of the fifth wave.

Third Wave (In Progress): Expected to be the strongest pump, potentially pushing BTC to break 150,000 USD.

Fifth wave (ultimate stage): FOMO-driven madness, target $200,000 cycle peak

The Historical Patterns of Altcoin Season and the Logic of Capital Rotation

Historically, when investors start shifting funds from Bitcoin to altcoins after BTC peaks, it often triggers a full-blown altcoin season. During this period, many smaller assets experience rapid exponential growth, especially when Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D) temporarily declines. CrediBULL Crypto emphasizes that this irrational exuberance phase is a natural part of the market cycle.

The dominance of Bitcoin (BTC.D) is an indicator that measures the proportion of Bitcoin's market capitalization relative to the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. When BTC.D rises, it indicates that funds are concentrated in Bitcoin; when BTC.D falls, it means that funds are flowing into alts. Historical data shows that each bull run cycle follows a similar pattern: Bitcoin rises first, BTC.D increases; Bitcoin's growth slows down, large-cap alts like Ethereum start to perform, BTC.D begins to decline; as Bitcoin approaches or hits its peak, funds flow comprehensively into various alts, and BTC.D decreases rapidly, marking the start of altcoin season.

The altcoin season of 2017 is the most classic case. After Bitcoin reached a peak of 20,000 USD in December, many alts saw their prices increase by 5 times or even 10 times in just a few weeks in January 2018. XRP rose from 0.2 USD to 3.8 USD, and ADA went from 0.02 USD to 1.2 USD, leaving a profound mark in crypto history. Although the altcoin season of 2021 was not as extreme as in 2017, a significant rotation effect appeared, with many DeFi and NFT tokens continuing to reach new highs after Bitcoin peaked.

When the frenzy for Bitcoin reaches its peak, the resulting “fear of missing out” (FOMO) often drives investors to seek higher and faster returns from other assets. The analyst further added that as long as BTC continues to pump, alts may rise accordingly. This psychological mechanism is the core driving force of the altcoin season. When Bitcoin steadily pumps at a rate of 1-2% per day, investors holding alts feel anxious (why aren't my coins pumping?). However, when Bitcoin's upward momentum slows or begins to adjust, profit-taking funds quickly flow into alts in search of new opportunities, triggering a waterfall rotation effect.

The capital rotation during the alts season usually follows a certain order. First are the large-cap alts, such as Ethereum, BNB, SOL, XRP, etc. These assets have good liquidity and relatively low risk, making them the top choice for institutions and big players. Next are the mid-cap DeFi and Layer1/Layer2 projects, such as Aave, Uniswap, Arbitrum, Optimism, etc. Finally, there are small-cap and memecoins, which represent the most frenzied speculative stage for retail investors, with the most exaggerated price increases but also the highest risks.

Position Rebuilding Strategy After the October Settlement Event

In a previous analysis on social media platform X, CrediBULL Crypto reiterated his viewpoint that the current market cycle has not yet reached its peak. Despite the recent market volatility and the collapse due to the devastating liquidation event on October 10, the analyst maintains that Bitcoin remains structurally bullish on higher time frames (HTF).

The liquidation event on October 10 was triggered by Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China, resulting in over $20 billion in leveraged positions being liquidated in the crypto market that day, making it one of the largest liquidation events in recent years. Many high-leverage long positions were forcibly closed, triggering a chain reaction and panic selling. However, CrediBULL Crypto believes that this liquidation is a healthy market cleansing, eliminating excessive leverage and weak positions, creating a more solid foundation for the next round of increases.

He pointed out that the recent market correction may provide an opportunity for traders affected by the liquidation wave to rebuild their positions before the next round of downturns. The logic behind this suggestion is that after the cleansing of liquidations, the leverage levels are significantly reduced, and the selling pressure is fully released, making the risk-reward ratio for re-establishing positions more favorable. He stated that if the expected parabolic trend unfolds, even if only a small amount of capital (about 10% of previous holdings) is allocated, it can yield substantial returns.

A 10% allocation recommendation is a relatively conservative risk management strategy. CrediBULL Crypto does not suggest investors make heavy bets, but rather participate in potential explosive markets with a small portion of funds while keeping the majority of capital safe. The advantage of this strategy is that if the prediction is correct, a 10% position could yield several times returns during altcoin seasons, significantly positively impacting the overall investment portfolio; if the prediction is wrong, the losses are limited to the 10% allocation, which will not harm the fundamentals.

CrediBULL Crypto emphasized the critical failure level near $74,000, indicating that as long as the Bitcoin price remains above this area, its long-term upward trend will remain unchanged. He reiterated his bullish prediction and insisted that the next round of significant price increases could push BTC to break through $150,000, with an ultimate target of $200,000.

From a risk management perspective, setting a clear failure level is an important principle of rational investing. $74,000 corresponds to about a 31% downside from the current price; if it truly breaks this level, it means the entire bull run assumption may be incorrect, necessitating a reassessment of market structure. For investors participating in the alts season, closely monitoring whether Bitcoin can hold this key level is an important basis for deciding whether to continue holding positions or to cut losses in a timely manner.

Risk Control Framework for Participating in Alts Season:

Allocation Ratio: It is recommended to allocate 10-15% of total assets to avoid excessive concentration of risk.

Invalid Level: Reassess when Bitcoin falls below $74,000, consider stop loss.

Rotation Strategy: Start with large-cap alts and gradually expand to mid and small-cap.

Take Profit: Sell in batches instead of waiting for the absolute top, lock in profits to reduce drawdown risk.

For ordinary investors, the altcoin season is both an opportunity and a trap. The opportunity lies in the potential for astonishing returns in a short time, while the trap is the extremely high volatility and risk of collapse. During the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, many tokens that surged during the altcoin season ultimately lost over 90% of their market value, and many projects even disappeared completely. Therefore, participating in the altcoin season requires strong discipline: set clear profit targets and stop-loss levels, enter and exit in batches rather than making a one-time move, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

From the current market environment, Bitcoin's consolidation at $108,000 may be accumulating momentum for the next round of pump. If the U.S. government shutdown ends, XRP ETF gets approved, and the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, these catalysts may erupt simultaneously, pushing Bitcoin to break through the $114,000 resistance and open the path to $150,000 or even $200,000. Once Bitcoin's rally reaches a crazy stage, the curtain for the altcoin season will officially rise, and the entire crypto market will enter its final frenzy.