Metrics Ventures Market Observation: The market has completed an extreme test of asset prices.

Crypto Market Secondary Fund Metrics Ventures April Market Observation

1/ The past week is noteworthy in the entire history of dollar assets. In terms of dollar asset prices, this is likely just a disturbance testing key support levels between bulls and bears. However, in the overall process of the East rising and the West falling, the entire process of these tariffs will become a significant turning point.

2/ We mentioned last month that the adjustments of MSTR and BTC were very healthy, and the low volatility characteristics of Bitcoin in this new cycle are undoubtedly evident. Therefore, we remain optimistic about the performance of MSTR and BTC within this year. The key support level of 75,000 has seen a surge in demand, accompanied by a large number of bullish divergence signals, resonating with the rebound of dollar assets, which will form at least a weekly-level market movement.

3/ Political affairs are not part of the content we usually discuss in our public monthly reports, although this is an important part of the “bold assumptions” within our trading framework. However, standing at this epic weekend of the week, I believe it is overly pessimistic to worry about potential further dollar disruptions in the past few months; from a pricing perspective, the market has likely already passed the extreme test.

Overview and Commentary on the Overall Market and Market Trends

In purely market terms, we would like to further emphasize from a technical analysis perspective that during the recent phase of strong market divergence, USD risk assets have shown a relatively adequate adjustment position/bear market critical support level with a large volume. In the case of the seven sisters breaking down in bulk, the performance of MSTR and BTC is a clear strong feedback. At the same time, we have noticed the following divergence phenomenon:

① The obvious divergence between Bitcoin prices and contract positions (Coinglass data):

②The divergence of Bitcoin’s MACD and RSI:

Therefore, overall we believe that the extreme testing position is the recent low point.

After experiencing the peak of the previous market, MSTR still consistently ranks among the top ten in terms of trading volume on the US stock market daily. We believe this also follows the hypothesis of the fund establishment mentioned in our special report from October 2024. In the future, we expect that liquidity will continuously flow back into Bitcoin from assets like GME that have recently joined the BTC fund from the US stock market. This model is reminiscent of the strategies used in Oriental real estate stocks that began twenty years ago.

The RMB assets have also undergone a visually perceptible limit test, which has allowed more people to understand the facts of military, manufacturing, technology, and demographic shifts that we began to discuss at the end of 2024. At this moment, the Shanghai Composite Index is still consolidating above the second gap, and with the subsequent synchronized easing of monetary policies in the East and West, it is expected that more investors will discover the trends of consumption brand upgrades, breakthroughs in chips, and other phenomena that have occurred in the Eastern economy in recent years. Although tariff events can be seen as a shock to asset prices, they will become a clear acceleration event many years later in the context of the overarching trend of the East rising and the West declining.

Finally, as the market sentiment gradually calms and the VIX begins to retreat, we want to say that at this moment, concerns about currency stability, sovereign stability, financial stability, and asset security are precisely the scenarios envisioned when Bitcoin was born nearly 20 years ago. The vision once held will not shift because of the transfer of pricing power, but whether the original intention still exists will truly reveal itself in 2025-2026.

At this moment, just like at that time.

About Us

Metrics Ventures is a data and research-driven liquidity fund for the secondary market of crypto assets, led by a team of experienced crypto professionals. The team possesses expertise in primary market incubation and secondary market trading, playing an active role in industry development through in-depth on-chain/off-chain data analysis. MVC collaborates with senior influencers in the crypto community to provide long-term empowerment support for projects, such as media and KOL resources, ecological collaboration resources, project strategies, and economic model consulting capabilities.

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