Under the shadow of tariff gloom, Bitcoin has completed the ultimate test of asset prices.

crypto market secondary fund Metrics Ventures April market observation guide:

1/ The past week is memorable even in the entire history of dollar assets. From the perspective of dollar asset prices, this is likely just a disturbance testing the key support levels of bulls and bears. However, in the overall process of the East rising and the West falling, the entire process of this tariff will become a significant turning point.

2/ We mentioned last month that the adjustment of MSTR and BTC is very benign, and the low volatility characteristics of Bitcoin in the new cycle are undoubtedly obvious, so we are still optimistic about the market of MSTR and BTC this year, and the key support level of 75,000 has seen a huge amount of demand, accompanied by a large number of bottom divergence signals, which has resonated with the bottoming rebound of US dollar assets, and will form a market at least weekly level.

3/ Political affairs are not something we have ever discussed in our public monthly reports, although they are an important part of the “bold assumptions” in our trading framework. However, standing at this epic weekly weekend, I think it’s overly pessimistic to be concerned about potential further disturbances in the dollar over the past few months. From a pricing perspective, the market has most likely already passed the stress test.

Overview and commentary on the overall market trends and market movements:

In terms of the pure market aspect, we would like to further emphasize in technical analysis that during the recent round of strong market divergence we just experienced, dollar-risk assets have released a massive volume at relatively sufficient adjustment positions/bear market critical support levels. Under the circumstance of the seven sisters breaking down in bulk, the trends of MSTR and BTC are obvious strong feedbacks. At the same time, we note the following divergence phenomenon:

①The obvious divergence between Bitcoin price and contract holdings (Coinglass data):

! April Crypto Market Watch: Bitcoin Completes Extreme Test of Asset Price Amid Tariff Shadow

②Divergence of Bitcoin’s own MACD and RSI:

Therefore, overall we believe that the limit testing position is the recent low point.

After the previous market climax, MSTR can still stably rank in the top 10 or so of U.S. stock trading volume every day, and we believe that this is also in line with the assumption of the establishment of the capital disk mentioned in our special report in October 24, and it is expected that in the future, it will continue to draw liquidity from U.S. stocks with new assets such as GME to feed back to Bitcoin, which is similar to the Oriental real estate stock game that began 20 years ago.

Renminbi assets have also undergone a visually perceivable limit test, allowing more people to understand the facts of the east rising and the west declining in terms of military, manufacturing, technology, and demographic structure that we began to discuss at the end of 2024. At this moment, the Shanghai Composite Index is still consolidating above the second gap, and with the subsequent synchronized easing of monetary policies between the East and the West, it is expected that more investors will discover the trends such as the upgrade of consumption brands and breakthroughs in chips that have occurred in the Eastern economy in recent years. Although tariff events can be seen as a shock to asset prices, they will become a clear acceleration event years later in the context of the overarching trend of the east rising and the west declining.

Finally, as market sentiment gradually stabilizes and VIX declines, we want to say that at this moment, concerns about currency stability, sovereignty stability, financial stability, and asset safety are exactly the scenario envisioned when Bitcoin was born nearly 20 years ago. The vision once held will not shift due to the transfer of pricing power, but whether the original intention remains will truly be revealed in 2025-2026.

At this moment, just like at that time.