In 2025, gold will once again be in the spotlight of global capital markets. COMEX gold futures broke through $3,200 an ounce, hitting a record high, up more than 20% for the year. At the same time, although Bitcoin briefly exceeded $100,000 at the end of 2024, it fell into a shock at the beginning of 2025, gradually moving away from the narrative of “digital gold”.
Why is gold, an “ancient asset”, still able to buck the trend under the wave of global digitalization? What is its underlying value logic? And why did Bitcoin, the “digital gold” that had been pinned on high hopes, fail to deliver on its risk-off promise in the midst of real market turmoil?
Today, we’re going to dismantle gold’s ultimate value code and explore its deep commonalities with Bitcoin – scarcity, safe-haven attributes, and human consensus.
Gold’s 2025 Hurricane: Three Core Engines
- Global central banks’ “de-dollarization” gold buying spree: the ultimate credit endorsement for gold
Global central bank gold reserves increased by a net 1,136t in 2024, up another 23% y-o-y in Q1 2025. China’s central bank has increased its holdings for 17 consecutive months, with reserves reaching 2,267t. The underlying logic of this trend is the systematic shaking of the dollar’s credit.
The frequent freezing of assets by the United States in other countries (such as Russia’s foreign exchange reserves) has forced emerging economies to accelerate their “de-dollarization”. Gold, as the only “hard currency” not controlled by any sovereign state, has become the best alternative reserve asset for central banks.
Gold’s monetary properties are returning. Gold’s share of global foreign exchange reserves fell from 60% in 2000 to 20% in 2020 and is now entering a value return cycle.
- Geopolitical Risk Premium: The “Ultimate Insurance” in Troubled Times
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, tensions in the Middle East, and escalating trade frictions between China and the United States – the world in 2025 will see a soaring geo-risk premium. The World Gold Council estimates that for every 1 standard deviation increase in geopolitical risk, the gold price pivot moved up by 4.2%.
Gold’s performance in a crisis has been flawless:
2008 financial crisis: Gold rises 26%, while the S&P 500 plunges 38%.
At the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, gold rose by 15%, while bitcoin plunged by 65% during the Fed’s rate hike cycle in 2022.
On the day of the Russia-Ukraine war: Gold rose 4.2% in a single day, while Bitcoin plunged 7% when Iran attacked Israel.
Gold’s safe-haven property stems from the consensus of mankind on it for 5,000 years - it is not a “safe-haven asset”, but an “ultimate currency”.
- Fed rate cut expectations hedged against inflation: gold’s “antifragile” attributes
While the Fed has maintained high interest rates, the market has advanced the expectation of a rate cut in the second half of 2025. The low interest rate environment has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, driving an influx of capital.
More critically, the global government debt/GDP ratio exceeded 130%, and long-term inflation expectations in the United States strengthened. The surge in demand for gold as a hedge against inflation, while the weakening of the US dollar has prompted investors to turn to gold as a hedge.
Gold’s “antifragile” nature allows it to maintain its value in various economic environments such as inflation, deflation, and stagflation.
Bitcoin’s “Digital Gold” Dilemma: Why Failed to Deliver on Risk-Off Promises in 2025
Bitcoin was once expected to become “digital gold”. But the market performance in 2025 challenges this narrative:
Strong correlation with tech stocks: Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq soared to 0.8, more of a “risk asset” than a “safe-haven asset.”
Policy uncertainty: The tightening of regulations on crypto exchanges by the US SEC and the vague statement of the Trump administration on the strategic reserve of bitcoin have intensified the selling pressure in the market.
Liquidity siphon effect: In anticipation of the Fed’s interest rate cut, funds flowed back to the U.S. stock market and the gold market, and bitcoin liquidated $900 million in a single day.
Bitcoin’s volatility (over 80% annualized) far exceeds that of gold (around 15%), making it difficult for it to play a “safe-haven” role in real market turmoil.
The ultimate commonality between gold and Bitcoin: scarcity, consensus, and human psychology
Despite the very different performances, gold and Bitcoin still bear a striking resemblance in the underlying logic:
- Scarcity: The ultimate rule that scarcity is precious
Gold: About 208,000 tonnes of gold have been mined on Earth, stacked up to the size of three Olympic swimming pools.
Bitcoin: 21 million in total, production halved every four years to ensure absolute scarcity.
Both of them cannot be issued at will, and they are naturally anti-inflation.
- Detached from sovereign credit: a store of wealth beyond government control
Gold: 5,000 years of history gives it the status of independence from sovereign credit.
Bitcoin: Blockchain technology is decentralized and not controlled by a single government.
They are all “non-sovereign assets” that serve as a safe haven in times of turmoil in the global credit system.
- Human Consensus: The Power of Faith
The value of gold stems from the global human recognition of its monetary status.
Bitcoin’s value relies on the consensus of blockchain believers.
The ultimate value of both is based on “enough people believe that it is valuable”.
Outlook for 2025: Gold is still the “king of safe haven”, and Bitcoin needs time to verify
In the short term, if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates further, gold could hit $3,950 or even $4,500. In the long run, gold will become the core carrier of “de-dollarization”, and the stagnation of mineral gold production will further strengthen the scarcity.
If Bitcoin is to truly become “digital gold”, it needs to break through regulatory shackles and reduce volatility to less than 30%. At present, it remains a high-risk, highly volatile speculative asset, rather than a stable safe-haven option.
Investment Strategy Advice:
Conservative: 70% gold ETF + 20% treasury bonds + 10% cash, with an annualized target of 8%-12%.
Aggressive: 50% Gold + 30% Bitcoin + 20% Technology Stocks, using gold to hedge Bitcoin volatility.
When the black swan hits, gold is still the ticket of Noah’s Ark, and in the world of 2025, geopolitical conflicts, debt crises, and monetary system restructuring are intertwined, and the ultimate value of gold is once again verified. Bitcoin, despite its huge potential, still needs time to prove whether it can truly take over the mantle of “digital gold”.
The magic of gold lies not in its chemical properties, but in the common belief that mankind has believed in it for thousands of years - this consensus is the cornerstone of its true value.
