The 40% increase of ADA faces obstacles as retail investor confidence weakens.

The price of Cardano (ADA) fell by 2.1%, wiping out the gains from the previous trading session and extending the losing streak since the weekend.

At the current time, ADA is struggling to break through the falling wedge pattern. Although the forecast for a potential 40% growth remains uncertain, experts still maintain an optimistic attitude towards the prospects of this coin.

The Cardano network activity is showing a strong recovery. On-chain transaction volume has increased consecutively over the past two weeks, particularly thanks to the launch of the privacy-focused sidechain Midnight. This has boosted the number of new users and the level of engagement on the network is rising.

However, this excitement is not enough to strengthen confidence in the market, as the majority of traders remain cautious, with sellers still dominating over buyers. Futures contract data also shows that sellers continue to control the market.

This imbalance reflects the trend of traders still leaning towards downside risk, despite the recent growth in network activity.

Forecast of a 40% increase in the price of Cardano still carries risks

The Cardano ecosystem witnessed a clear breakthrough in December after the launch of the Midnight sidechain. The trading volume peaked for the month on December 10th with a figure of 19.74 million USD.

According to analyst CryptoClue, ADA can definitely maintain a 40% increase in the latest price forecast. This momentum has been sustained throughout the weekend, with data from TapTools recording a trading volume of 16.11 million USD on Sunday, a significant rise from the 6.39 million USD of the previous day – evidence of the community's renewed interest.

The number of independent trading wallets also surged in December, reaching a peak of 3,150 wallets. By Sunday, this number remained at 2,200 wallets, indicating that the level of participation is still superior to previous periods.

However, the developments in the derivatives market show a different picture regarding the price outlook for Cardano. Most traders still choose a defensive strategy, reinforcing the bearish trend.

In-depth analysis of ADA price prospects

Data from CoinGlass shows that the open interest in ADA futures contracts has fallen by 1.57% in the past 24 hours, down to 666.25 million USD. This reflects position closure and decreased leverage usage.

At the same time, funding rates remain at a negative level of (-0.0079%), indicating that traders are willing to pay fees to maintain short positions.

Currently, Cardano – the cryptocurrency ranked 11th by market capitalization – is moving in a falling wedge pattern on the logarithmic daily chart, with two converging trend lines.

The fall of 2.1% could continue to extend the losing streak from the weekend, but if the buyers continue to maintain their demand, ADA could completely regain a 7% increase like the previous Friday.

If the positive trend is maintained, the price of ADA could rise to test the main trend line around the 0.4350 USD mark, connecting the two important peaks that appeared on October 27 and December 9, 2025.

In addition, selling pressure has eased as the RSI index rises to the oversold zone at 38 and the MACD approaches the bullish crossover.

On the contrary, the price of ADA has also established a support zone around the level of 0.3415 USD at the lower trendline of the descending wedge pattern – this is the short-term floor that traders are particularly interested in.

Mr. Teacher