Wall Street banks and crypto analysts issue sharply conflicting Bitcoin targets into 2026, underscoring uncertainty over “digital gold” and macro risks.
Summary
- JPMorgan sees Bitcoin extending its “digital gold” role, eyeing upside if volatility eases and regulation firms up.
- Tim Draper targets outsized BTC gains by October 2026, framing it as a hedge against dollar debasement and legacy finance.
- Benjamin Cowen and Standard Chartered flag cycle risk and slower institutional demand, warning of a post-2025 reset and lower 2026 peak.
Major financial institutions and industry analysts have released divergent price projections for Bitcoin over the next 12 to 24 months, according to reports compiled by financial news outlet Finbold.
Digital gold to doom cycle
JPMorgan Chase & Co. has forecast significant appreciation for Bitcoin by 2026, positioning the cryptocurrency as a potential challenger to gold’s market dominance, according to the bank’s analysts. The projection assumes Bitcoin (BTC) continues to function as “digital gold,” with institutional capital inflows competing with gold’s market capitalization, the analysts stated. The bank identified a near-term price floor from which recovery could gain momentum, while noting that regulatory clarity and reduced volatility could support sustained growth. Economic slowdowns remain a risk factor, according to the analysis.
Venture capitalist Tim Draper has predicted substantial gains by October 2026, according to recent interviews. Draper attributed the forecast to Bitcoin’s potential role as a hedge against dollar debasement and its technological advantages over traditional currencies, stating the cryptocurrency could prove more impactful than the internet through broader adoption in retail payments and financial services.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has issued a more cautious outlook, predicting a potential market reset following a possible peak in late 2025, according to his analysis. Cowen’s forecast suggests Bitcoin could rise before declining in late 2026, entering a downturn similar to past market cycles. The analyst drew parallels to 2019 market conditions and warned that excessive optimism could trigger a sharp correction. Cowen extended the caution to alternative cryptocurrencies including Ethereum, arguing new all-time highs in 2026 remain unlikely due to Bitcoin’s market dominance and broader market fatigue.
Standard Chartered has reduced its Bitcoin forecast by half, now expecting a lower peak by the end of 2026 than previously projected, according to the bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick. Kendrick cited slower corporate treasury buying and increased reliance on spot exchange-traded fund inflows as reasons for the downgrade, describing the current market pullback as a “cold breeze” rather than a full downturn. The bank maintains a positive longer-term outlook, projecting higher levels by 2030 driven by supply constraints and portfolio reallocations away from traditional assets such as gold, according to the revised forecast.
The varied projections emerge as Bitcoin trades near key technical levels following a volatile year-end period.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
MicroStrategy Stock Rallies as Bitcoin Breaks $78K, Unrealized Gains Return to $1.37B
MicroStrategy's stock surged 13.83% as Bitcoin reclaimed $78,000, returning the company to an unrealized profit of $1.37 billion. The rise follows easing tensions in the Middle East and a broader rally in risk assets, despite criticism of its preferred stock.
GateNews1h ago
Morgan Stanley Purchases 177.76 BTC Worth $13.75 Million
Gate News message, Morgan Stanley bought 177.76 BTC worth $13.75M three hours ago. The firm now holds 1,347.54 BTC worth $103.94M in total.
GateNews4h ago
BTC fell below 77000 USDT
Gate News bot message, Gate quotes show that BTC fell below 77000 USDT, trading at 76961.6 USDT.
CryptoRadar5h ago
NYSE Welcomes Morgan Stanley’s MSBT Launch as First Spot Bitcoin ETF Issued by a Major US Bank
Bank-backed bitcoin ETFs are accelerating institutional adoption and strengthening market credibility. The NYSE marked a new milestone as Morgan Stanley Investment Management rang the closing bell and celebrated the launch of MSBT, which the NYSE described as the first spot bitcoin ETF by a major
Coinpedia8h ago
BTC falls 0.49% in 15 minutes: fragile long leverage and active sell-off pressure resonate to weigh on the short term
From 18:00 to 18:15 (UTC) on 2026-04-17, the BTC price fluctuated and trended downward within the 77097.4 to 77573.2 USDT range. Over these 15 minutes, the return rate recorded -0.49%, and the amplitude reached 0.61%. During this period, market trading was active; short-term volatility was amplified, and trading attention increased significantly. The main driver behind this abnormal move is that the overall leverage structure is bearish and long positions are fragile. At present, the BTC perpetual contract funding rate has remained negative for 11 consecutive days, indicating that the bears have the upper hand in the market. In addition, futures open interest (OI) is about 628.3 billion USDT, which is at a historical high. During the anomaly window, trading volume increased noticeably. On-chain data shows large amounts of BTC flowing from long-term holder addresses to exchanges, suggesting that active sell orders may have triggered longs to passively reduce positions, amplifying downward price pressure. Moreover, institutional positioning enthusiasm in the mainstream contract market has cooled off; liquidity boundaries have tightened, causing large-trade activity to have an amplified effect on market volatility. In the options market, implied volatility rose to 39.81%, increasing demand for downside protection and reflecting a defensive posture among market participants. Macro-environment volatility and some capital flowing into safe-haven assets, together with the recent regulatory uncertainty-related historical events, reinforced the move, pushing overall market risk appetite lower. Current BTC leverage risks still remain. If, in the future, there are concentrated sell-offs, volatility may be further amplified. It is recommended to continue monitoring sustained high OI levels, the persistence of negative funding rates, and on-chain transfers of large amounts of funds, and to stay alert for whale behavior and any disruptions to market sentiment caused by macro-policy developments. For subsequent price action, please watch key support levels, institutional and whale on-chain moves, and relevant global market news, and guard against short-term risks.
GateNews10h ago
