Following military actions in Venezuela and the subsequent arrest of President Nicolás Maduro in the United States, Bitcoin’s price surged rapidly, once breaking through the $93,000 mark, attracting significant market attention. Many institutions believe that this rally is not accidental but the result of multiple factors resonating across macro, capital structure, and technical aspects. Matrixport summarizes three core reasons driving the Bitcoin rebound.
First is the completion of a “zeroing reset” in the market. Matrixport points out that since Q4 2025, the leverage in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures markets has decreased by nearly $30 billion. A large number of cautious or hesitant traders chose to exit at the beginning of the new year, causing a clear cooling of the market’s position structure. With low leverage and light positions, Bitcoin prices are more likely to follow natural trends, opening space for gains in 2026. This de-speculation process is seen as a key foundation for the current Bitcoin market.
The second key variable comes from Venezuela’s potential “shadow Bitcoin reserves.” Market intelligence indicates that Venezuela may have accumulated up to 600,000 Bitcoins by circumventing sanctions, a scale close to some large institutional holdings. With Maduro’s arrest, the ownership of these assets has become a focal point. If these Bitcoins are seized and frozen by the U.S. or even incorporated into the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves, it would directly reduce the circulating supply in the market, creating medium- to long-term bullish expectations for Bitcoin.
The third factor is a significant technical breakthrough for Bitcoin. The price has not only regained the 50-day and 200-day moving averages on the 4-hour chart and the 200-day exponential moving average but also saw 24-hour trading volume increase by over 40%, indicating active capital inflow. Analysts believe that as long as Bitcoin maintains its current range and continues to challenge the $94,000 resistance level, the short- to medium-term upward trend still has room to continue.
Overall, geopolitical conflicts, changes in supply expectations, and improvements in technical structure have jointly driven this Bitcoin rally, reinforcing its role as a safe haven and strategic asset in an uncertain global environment.
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