This week, investors in Bitcoin, gold, and silver are closely monitoring a series of key economic signals from the US, factors that could shape market sentiment as well as the value of these assets.
As Bitcoin remains around $88,000, gold approaches the $5,000/ounce threshold, and silver surpasses $100/ounce due to increasing safe-haven demand, upcoming events are forecasted to have a strong impact on the market.
Four US economic indicators significantly influencing investor sentiment this week
The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate policy continues to play a crucial role. Low interest rates typically boost risky assets like Bitcoin, while reducing opportunity costs for holding non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. Conversely, signs of economic strength or persistent inflation could pressure these assets, as expectations for higher interest rates are reinforced.
Additionally, the earnings reports of major tech giants will influence overall risk appetite, spreading to both the cryptocurrency market and precious metals.
In the context of ongoing global instability and the risk of a US government shutdown, the following indicators will help shape the short-term trend of alternative investments.
Notable US economic events this week | Source: Trading Economics### Fed’s interest rate decision (FOMC) and Chair Powell’s press conference
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on January 28, 2026, along with Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, are seen as key catalysts for Bitcoin, gold, and silver prices.
Most experts forecast the Fed will keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. According to a Reuters survey, all 100 economists agree on this outlook, based on strong economic growth.
The market currently assigns a 97.2% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady, after rate cuts at the end of 2025 helped stabilize the economy.
Probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts | Source: CME FedWatch Tool JPMorgan predicts the Fed will maintain current rates throughout 2026, with a possible hike in 2027 if inflation accelerates.
For Bitcoin, if the Fed signals dovishness, implying potential rate cuts in the future, prices could surge due to improved risk appetite and liquidity. History shows cryptocurrencies tend to benefit during easing monetary cycles.
Conversely, if Powell adopts a hawkish stance on inflation, Bitcoin could face selling pressure due to sensitivity to tightening monetary policy.
Crypto expert Mister Crypto comments: “The market has fully priced in no rate cuts… Why? – Low inflation – GDP exceeding expectations – Average labor market. Pay attention to Powell’s speech and guidance for 2026.”
Gold and silver, traditionally seen as inflation hedges, often rise when interest rates fall due to lower opportunity costs. If the Fed keeps rates unchanged, precious metal prices may stay high, but confirmation of no cuts could limit further gains.
With gold up over 18% since the start of the year to around $5,096, and silver up 53% to $108, any signals of prolonged high interest rates could pressure these metals as the US dollar strengthens.
Price movements of Bitcoin (BTC), Gold (XAU), and Silver (XAG) | Source: TradingView Statements from Powell regarding the housing market or economic growth will be especially watched by investors, as they could increase volatility in these assets amid global geopolitical tensions.
Initial Jobless Claims
The weekly initial jobless claims report ending January 24, 2026, will provide additional data on the health of the US labor market, directly impacting investor sentiment toward Bitcoin, gold, and silver.
Forecast range: RBC Economics expects 195,000 claims, lower than last week’s 200,000, while platforms like Kalshi are betting on figures of 210,000 or more.
The latest data shows claims stable at 200,000 for the week ending January 17, reflecting low layoffs and a resilient economy. The four-week moving average has also decreased, reinforcing stability.
If claims are lower than expected, markets may interpret this as a sign of a strengthening US economy, prompting the Fed to delay rate cuts. This could put downward pressure on Bitcoin due to high interest rates reducing risk appetite.
Conversely, a sharp increase in claims could signal economic weakness, boosting expectations for Fed easing and pushing BTC prices higher, as seen previously when weak labor data supported crypto gains.
For gold and silver, strong data could exert downward pressure if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, increasing opportunity costs. However, if claims rise, safe-haven demand for these metals could increase.
Amid Bitcoin’s stagnation and strong gains in gold and silver, this report could heighten volatility, especially if the actual figure diverges from the median forecast of 209,000.
US economic events this week, forecast vs. previous data | Source: MarketWatchThis result could also amplify market reactions to Fed signals early in the week.
Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI for December
Data on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI for December 2025, expected to be released on January 30, 2026, will clarify trends in wholesale inflation, with ripple effects on Bitcoin, gold, and silver.
Forecasts indicate overall PPI will rise 0.3% month-over-month, higher than November’s 0.2%, and could reach 3.0% year-over-year. Core PPI is expected to remain unchanged monthly but increase 3.5% annually.
November data showed PPI up 3.0% year-over-year, with core PPI at 2.9% in October. Experts anticipate a slight easing, but surprises could shift market expectations for the Fed.
If PPI exceeds forecasts, it could signal persistent inflation, reinforcing the case for the Fed to hold or raise rates. This could reduce Bitcoin’s appeal due to tighter liquidity.
Conversely, softer data might support Bitcoin prices by bolstering expectations of monetary easing, as seen during weak data periods. Gold and silver often benefit from inflation signals, serving as risk hedges. Therefore, high PPI could help sustain gains in precious metals.
However, if the data indicates deflationary trends, prices of these metals could decline as the dollar strengthens. This report, along with FOMC and jobless claims data, could generate significant weekly volatility, as PPI is a sensitive indicator of the business cycle.
Earnings reports from major tech giants (Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple)
Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla will release earnings on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. Apple follows on Thursday, January 29, amid heightened market focus on AI and growth prospects.
The “Magnificent 7” are expected to boost S&P 500 profit growth in 2026 by 14.7%, with AI themes taking center stage.
Positive earnings could boost risk sentiment, driving Bitcoin higher as optimism about tech spreads to the crypto market, especially since Bitcoin often correlates with growth stocks during bullish phases.
Conversely, weak results or poor outlooks could trigger sell-offs, putting downward pressure on Bitcoin along with equities.
For gold and silver, strong earnings may create a “risk-on” environment, diverting funds from safe havens and limiting gains. Disappointing results could support precious metals as safe-haven assets amid uncertainty.
In summary, this week is pivotal, with numerous economic data releases and key events that could shape Bitcoin, gold, and silver’s short-term trends amid global volatility and US policy decisions. Investors should closely monitor these indicators to make timely, informed decisions.
Mr. Giáo
