Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline over the weekend, dropping below $78,000 and triggering a wave of liquidations; former NYSE Arca options trader Eric Crown warns that technical indicators are turning fully bearish, and BTC may further decline to the $50,000–$60,000 range.
(Background recap: Bitcoin retreated to $87,000, Polymarket: 80% chance of BTC returning to six figures in 2026)
(Additional context: 6.4 million Bitcoins hanging in the balance: MicroStrategy’s life-and-death gamble)
Table of Contents
- The bulls’ “hopium” may have come to an end
- Options market confirms bearish sentiment
- Multiple technical warning signs light up
- Decoupling from traditional markets: end-of-cycle warning signals
- $50,000–$60,000: the next target zone?
Bitcoin’s price saw a dramatic pullback over the weekend, briefly falling below $78,000, marking the lowest level since April this year. Profit-taking sell-offs and continuously shrinking liquidity interacted to accelerate the decline, compounded by a severe lack of new buying interest.
Traders point out that this rally, initially supported by corporate demand—especially MicroStrategy’s ongoing Bitcoin purchases—has now lost momentum, exposing the market to forced liquidations and derivatives clearing pressures.
The bulls’ “hopium” may have come to an end
For some market analysts, Saturday’s sharp drop confirmed a bearish trend that had been brewing for months. Eric Crown, a former NYSE Arca options trader with over 200,000 followers, has been arguing since late October that Bitcoin is in a sideways, weak phase, and that market hopes for a return to all-time highs or a rotation of funds from precious metals back into crypto are just wishful thinking—what he calls “hopium.”
He further emphasizes that recent price movements may only be part of a larger correction pattern, stating:
Since late October, my view has been that BTC is in a sideways, bearish phase… I don’t believe $80,000 will be the overall bottom for Bitcoin.
Options market confirms bearish sentiment
Data from the options market also supports this bearish mood. An increasing number of traders are betting on Bitcoin falling below $75,000, while selling off call options at the $100,000 strike. On Deribit, open interest in Bitcoin put options with a strike price of $75,000 has risen to $1.159 billion, nearly matching the $1.168 billion open interest in call options at $100,000.
The narrowing gap between the two indicates that market hedging against downside risk is rapidly intensifying.
Multiple technical warning signs light up
Crown points out several technical indicators historically associated with deeper corrections:
- Monthly MACD death cross: appearing in November, a rare signal that has preceded long-term downtrends in past cycles.
- Weekly 21 vs. 55 EMA turning bearish: recently falling into a bearish alignment, which often leads to months of losses.
- 2025-year line forming a “shooting star”: a candlestick pattern often signaling a medium-term reversal.
Decoupling from traditional markets: end-of-cycle warning signals
Adding to the concern, Bitcoin has been diverging from traditional financial markets since October—weakening even as stocks and other risk assets remain strong. Crown views this as typical end-of-cycle risk-off behavior:
“Generally, investors tend to sell the most speculative assets first.”
Beyond technical factors, Crown also points to the speculative deleveraging triggered by the October crash: a large-scale wipeout of leveraged altcoin positions, with traders still hesitant to rebuild positions at high levels.
$50,000–$60,000: the next target zone?
Although Crown’s outlook isn’t as pessimistic as some ultra-bearish cycle theorists, he still believes Bitcoin could further decline to the $50,000–$60,000 range before stabilizing. He states that this price zone is where he is considering adding long-term positions and views the current market environment as a potential “value accumulation phase,” rather than the end of a major crypto cycle.
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